GOP May Be Kissing Texas House Majority
Goodbye if Patrick Warnings are Accurate
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 24, 2026
Democrats could be on the verge of reclaiming the Texas House majority at this fall based on Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick warnings on Wednesday about two state senators being in danger of losing re-election races in districts that President Donald Trump won by more than 20 points in 2024.
Patrick confirmed that an oncoming blue wave has monstrous potential when he told lobbyists on Wednesday at a fundraiser in Austin that GOP State Senators Bob Hall of Edgewood and Charles Schwertner of Georgetown were in peril after running for months as prohibitive favorites.
The Texas Senate president for nearly 12 years, Patrick acknowledged that he and Governor Greg Abbott were fighting for political lives in re-election races that are extremely close based on the results of an internal poll that tested statewide contests on the Texas ballot and selective Senate districts. Patrick portrayed the fight at the top of the ticket between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico for a U.S. Senate seat as a coin flip for the general election 40 days from now.
While Patrick focused on Texas Senate and statewide battles on the ballot in November, the unexpected alarms that he sounded on the contests for the Legislature's upper chamber raised the specter that the GOP could be at risk of fumbling the state House majority away at the polls this fall. Democrats would take back the wheel in the House with a net-gain of 14 seats or more in the general election.
The Republicans could suffer a net-loss of two Senate seats in the general election on November 3 and retain the majority in the Capitol's east wing where the GOP would have 17-14 edge when the regular session convenes in January. Patrick had been predicting that the Republicans would be safe in districts the GOP controls now while flipping the Tarrant County district where Democratic State Senator Taylor Rehmet beat the lieutenant governor's handpicked candidate in a special election runoff on January 31.
But the powerful lieutenant governor appeared to be circling the wagons instead with the unexpected warning that he issued at the fundraising reception that was packed with lobbyists on Wednesday.
The seat that Republican Mayes Middleton is giving up in favor of a race for attorney general would appear to be at risk as well this fall in Senate District 11 where State Rep. Dennis Paul of Houston is the GOP nominee in a fight with Democrat Shannon Dicely. Trump won by 20.3 points with 59 percent of the vote in Hall's district in 2024 when he defeated Democrat Kamala Harris by 20.4 in Senate District 11 where Middleton is the outgoing incumbent.
The possibility of Schwertner, Hall and Paul going down could send already-nervous House Republicans and candidates for the GOP into states of panic in seats that hadn't appeared to be in play based on the voting histories of the individual districts where they're running in 2026. When considering that the Democrats who are challenging Schwertner and Hall - Paul Thomasson of College Station in Senate District 5 and Keenon Colbert of Forney in Senate District 2 - have raised less than $70,000 combined for their respective bids, the wave Patrick appears to fear could erupt into a full-fledged tsunami that relegates the GOP to minority status across the rotunda.
Trump beat the Democratic vice-president by 23.3 points in SD 5 where Schwertner has been the incumbent for almost 14 years. SD 5 contains all of 10 rural counties in East Texas and 63 percent of Williamson County where Schwertner is based. Forty-one percent of Schwertner's constituents reside in Williamson County while 25 percent call Brazos County home. Trump received 61 percent of the 2024 vote in SD 5.
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred there by 19 points that year. Cruz won by 15 points in SD 11 where Paul is Patrick's handpicked choice for the race. The state's junior U.S. Senate member beat Allred by 14 in the district that Hall represents in a swath of Northeast Texas that stretches to the outskirts of the Dallas area.
Trump won by less than 20 points in his third White House race in 33 Texas House districts that Republicans are attempting to defend this year. Trump beat the Democratic VP by fewer than 21 points in three dozen House districts that the GOP currently controls.
Three seats that the GOP is fighting to keep in South Texas - House District 34, House District 37 and House District 118 in the San Antonio area - have been listed as leans Democrat in the Capitol Inside rankings for the general election. Six Republican House seats had been ranked here as toss ups before the race in House District 52 where State Rep. Caroline Harris Davilla is running again was shifted on Thursday to the leans Democrat column.
A pair of Tarrant County seats that GOP State Rep. John McQueeney and Republican Ellen Fleischmann are seeking were relocated from leans Republican to the toss up today. Seven races for House seats that are red now are ranked on the 50-50 list but could all be about to go blue if Patrick wasn't overestimating the potential for disaster this fall.
Schwertner ended June with over $2.5 million in cash on hand when the Democratic challenger Thomasson had $12,249 in the campaign back. Schwertner raised almost $2.1 million in an 18-month span. The Democrat in the SD 5 race raised $20,000 before June 30 to go with a loan to his campaign of almost $35,000.
The funding disparity wasn't as gigantic in SD 2 where Hall rounded up $516,000 between the start of 2025 and the final day in June this year. Hall had nearly $329,000 socked away on June 30. Colbert raised $15,000 for the SD 2 bid and ended June with a zero balance in the campaign bank. .
more to come ...
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