Poll Shows Texas Dems in Striking Distance
of Republicans Who Are All More Unpopular
Texas General Election Polls
Capitol Inside
June 23, 2026
Democrats may see a new University of Texas poll as a treasure trove for guarded optimism for November despite advantages that Republicans had in every statewide race that was tested with the exception of a U.S. Senate fight that had the major candidates running even five months before the midterm vote.
As the Texas Democratic Convention prepared to get under way in Corpus Christi, the UT poll found Democrat James Talarico trailing Republican Ken Paxton by a single percentage point with strong support from voters who are Black and Hispanic and independents who could be the key to victory for the eventual winner.
Talarico was favored by 67 percent of the Blacks in the UT survey compared to 13 percent who gave the nod to the Republican attorney general in the Senate race. Talarico's 54-point led among Black voters could ease some fears of a loss of a significant number with Jasmine Crockett refusing to say if she'll support the Senate nominee who defeated her by 6 points in the March primary election.
The Texas Politics Project poll that was conducted by YouGov from June 5 to June 12 found Talarico with a 14-point edge over Paxton among Hispanics who were surveyed while leading the Republican attorney general by 28 points among voters who are independent. Talarico was favored by 40 percent of the independent voters in the UT poll that found Paxton with support from only 12 percent in that critical category.
Governor Greg Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick - a pair of Republicans seeking fourth terms - had leads of 7 points over Democratic challengers Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin respectively in the UT poll. Republican Don Huffines led Democrat Sarah Eckhardt by 6 points in the fight for state comptroller while GOP nominee Mayes Middleton was up on Democrat Nathan Johnson by 5.
But all of the major GOP leaders were under water on their job approval ratings in the University of Texas poll with the governor's exception with good marks from 46 percent and thumbs down from 46 percent. Abbott's approval marks had been 3 points higher in April than his disapproval ratings. Patrick's job performance ratings went from 3 points in April to 8 points in June. Paxton, who was underwater 8 percent in April, had disapproval marks in the new poll that were 5 points worse this month.
But the pollsters at the state's flagship public university in Texas determined that Talarico has yet to receive a game-changing boost from an exodus of GOP voters who backed incumbent John Cornyn to the Democrat for the fall fight in the Senate race after vowing to never vote for Paxton before and after he win the nomination in a primary runoff last month. The poll found that 84 percent of the Republicans plan to vote for Paxton in the general election while 5 percent of the GOP voters in the survey gave Talarico the nod. Talarico had 88 percent of the Democrats in his corner in the UT poll while 1 percent backed Paxton.
But 5 percent could be the difference in a race as close as the Texas Senate contest has been in polling since the runoff that Paxton won with 64 percent of the vote after landing an endorsement from Donald Trump the week before the overtime election in May.
While Talarico had a huge lead among independents, more than one-third of those in the UT survey remain on the fence in the Senate competition based the poll's findings. That could be where the U.S. Senate battle here is won or lost if it's as close as it appears now. Talarico may have the best shot at the undecided independent voters based on his popularity among those who have made their choice in the race at the top of the Texas ticket this fall. Hinojosa fared even stronger among independents in the UT survey with support from 41 percent compared to 12 percent who favored Abbott for another term.
Paxton faces the challenge of improving his standing among independents after a state GOP convention in Houston that pushed the party further to the right and offered nothing for voters in the political center. While Paxton led Talarico by 20 points among white voters, the AG trailed the Democrat by 2 to 3 points in every age category except voters who are 65 years of age or older. Paxton was ahead of Talarico by 11 points among the oldest voters here.
Talarico led the Republican among the youngest voters by 2 points - a mark that the Democrats may find disappointing after appearing to be faring better in that specific group. Forty-one percent of voters aged 18 to 29 backed Talarico in the UT poll. Paxton led Talarico by 9 points among male voters in the survey that showed Talarico ahead by 6 among females.
Democrats clearly had the edge on the issues that the voters in the UT poll see as the leading priorities going into the midterm vote. Inflation and higher prices were ranked at the top of the issue chart as the state's most pressing concerns - with 17 percent rating that as the most important priority. Political corruption/leadership was second with votes from 14 percent while the economy was next at 10 percent followed by immigration and Border security.
| 
