Dems Lead in Three Texas Congress Districts
that Trump Won by Double Digits in 2024 Bid
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
August 26, 2026
A poll that was released on Wednesday found Democrats with the leads in three Texas congressional races that Republicans expected their party to win when they promised President Donald Trump that a new map that he'd ordered last year would yield five additional seats for the GOP.
The new Texas Southern University survey had a double-dose of bad news for the Republicans when it found Democratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico with double-digit leads over the GOP's Ken Paxton in two of the U.S. House districts that were polled while he was ahead by 8 in the third. All of the congressional races that were featured in the new TSU poll are taking place in heavily-Hispanic districts where Trump scored double-digit victories in 2024.
The TSU poll showed Democrt Bobby Pulido up by 5 points on Republican U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the fight for a Congressional District 15 seat that wasn't supposed to be in play when the Republicans in Austin started a redistricting war at Trump's command in special session last summer. Pulido, a popular Latin music recording artist who's taken the campaign trail by storm, led the second-term incumbent 50-45 in the TSU poll that was made public 69 days before the general election on November 3.
Conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at the Houston-based public school, the poll found veteran Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar with an 11-point advantage over Republican Tano Tijerina in Congressional District 28 where the incumbent had support from 45 percent of the survey's participants.
The competition was tighter in Congressional District 35 where the TSU poll showed Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez leading GOP challenger Eric Flores by 3 points with 45 percent support as well. A Green Party candidate received nods from 3 percent in the congressional battleground poll while the Libertarian in the race had support from 2 percent.
Green Party contestants generally take votes away from Democrats while Libertarian voters usually are more aligned with Republicans. Cuellar, as a result, would have expected to lead his GOP foe by a wider margin if the Green Party contender Marlón Durán hadn't garnered 6 percent in the new TSU poll.
Talarcio, who's led Paxton by nearly 3 points in average in the polls on the Texas Senate race in the past two months, was up on the state attorney general by 11 points in CD 34 with support from 53 percent. Talarico was in front of Paxton by 10 points in CD 28 with 51 percent - and he led the Republican in CD 15 with 50 percent compared to 42 percent for Paxton.
Trump defeated Kamala Harris by 18 points in CD 15 where the incumbent he's backing has trailed Pulido in most if not all of the polls that have been taken there this year. Trump won by slightly more than 10 points in 2024 in both CD 34 and CD 28 where Gonzalez and Cuellar are seeking new terms this year.
The TSU survey of 600 likely voters in CD 28 and 700 likely voters in both CD 34 and CD 15 showed Cuellar with support from 23 percent of the Trump voters from 2024. Eight percent of the Trump voters in CD 15 favored Pulido in the new poll while 5 percent of Republicans including 2 percent who supported the president in the last general election are backing Gonzalez in CD 34.
Trump disapproval marks in the three South Texas districts ranged from 54 percent to 56 percent in the new TSU poll.
more to come ...
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