Updated September 16, 2026 |
|
| FORECAST |
CD 15 |
CD 35 |
CD 34 |
CD 23 |
CD 28 |
CD 9 |
CD 32 |
| Kalshi |
D 62% |
D 56% |
D 76% |
R 68% |
D 84% |
R 88% |
R 86% |
| Polymarket |
D 65% |
D 57% |
D 76% |
R 66% |
D 83% |
R 91% |
R 89% |
| Vote Hub |
D 62% |
D 58% |
D 84% |
R 62% |
D 92% |
R 90% |
R 90% |
|
Trump PACs Pouring $16.4 Million into Two
US House Races in Texas and Senate Battle
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 16, 2026
Super PACs linked to President Donald Trump are pumping nearly $6 million into the two hottest congressional races in the Lone Star State where U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz and her brother Carlos De La Cruz are in significant danger of losing to Democrats in neighboring South Texas districts that were drawn for the GOP.
The New York Times revealed on Tuesday that the political committees that are connected to the president are spending over $138 million on advertising for 18 U.S. House races and nine U.S. Senate fights ahead of the general election 47 days from now. According to InteractivePolls on X, the pro-Trump groups are allocating a total of $16.4 million for three Texas contests with Ken Paxton getting $10.8 million for a U.S. Senate campaign that had failed to raise a sufficient amount of cash to seriously compete with heavily-armed Democrat James Talarico until the past few days.
De La Cruz, who's seeking a third term, is set to reap a $3.6 million windfall from the Trump-linked PACs for a fight against Democrat Bobby Pulido in a Congressional District 15 race that the challenger entered as a substantial underdog and has appeared to be leading in recent weeks.
De La Cruz, the GOP nominee in Congressional District 35, is slated for a $2 million infusion from the pro-Trump groups including the super PAC MAGA Inc. and two new committees that are tied to it. Carlos De La Cruz is doing battle with Democrat Johnny Garcia in CD 35 - one of five seats that the Republicans in Austin targeted for takeovers on a map that Trump had them redesign last summer to give the Republicans five additional seats in the nation's second largest state.
Governor Greg Abbott has promised Trump that the new Texas map would produce five more House seats for the GOP like he'd ordered. GOP state lawmakers here sparked a war on redistricting across the country at a time when Democrats had claimed the edge in the fight for the House majority in 2027. The Texas effort prompted California Democrats to counter with the Proposition 50 plan with five target seats they are substantial favorites to flip in November.
Democrats are widely favored to reclaim the majority in the U.S. House this fall regardless of the outcome in the Texas congressional battlefield. Democrats will expect to control the Senate as well next year if Talarico hangs on to a narrow lead that he seized in July and has refused to relinquish since that time in a contest that has thriller finish potential.
While pro-Trump groups have pledged close to $100 million on the Texas Senate fight, Paxton's camp is still playing catch up with a Democratic opponent who raised almost $69 million in his first 10 months as a candidate compared $9 million that the state attorney general in 14 months as a candidate for the federal post.
But the Trump PACs' limiting of the largess in Texas to the Senate race and the De La Cruz family contests raises the specter that the Republicans may be writing off a pair of challengers in races for South Texas congressional seats that GOP leaders and lawmakers targeted in districts where incumbent Democrats are heavily favored in most major forecasts and betting lines for the general election
Republicans Eric Flores and Tano Tijerina, who are attempting to unseat U.S. Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar respectively this fall - appeared together on the stage at the midterm convention in Dallas where they proved to be two of the more entertaining speakers at the event. But Tijerina and Flores could be out on their own without help from Trump ranks despite being invited to appear at the Trump convention based on their absences from the super PACs new battle plan.
Victories by Cuellar and Gonzalez - coupled with GOP wins in two other targeted Texas districts where Republicans are heavy favorites - would leave the CD 15 and CD 35 contests as the only races here that are genuinely competitive at this point with time in diminishin g supply. The Republicans in such an event would pick up three of the five Texas seats they targeted for conversions if both De La Cruz siblings win. But losses in CD 15 and CD 35 - combined with victories by the current favorites in the other Texas races for the House - would leave the GOP with a net gain of only one seat here.
Monica De La Cruz raised $4 million from contributors before the start of July while Pulido reported receipts to his campaign of $3 million at that point. The CD 15 incumbent ended June with a $2.5 million cash balance compared to $1.2 million that Pulido had in reserve then. Garcia and Carlos De La Cruz both raised close to $1 million for campaigns in CD 35 where the Democrat had $323,000 in cash hand on the final day of June when the GOP nominee had $272,000 socked away.
The Trump PACs plan to pour $8.8 million into a New York congressional contest while shelling out $6.8 million for a House fight in Florida and $1.5 million for a second race there. The groups are dishing out almost $27 milion on Republicans in Michigan with $18.2 million earmarked for the Senate battle that featured Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and the GOP's Mike Rogers.
The Trump committees plan to shell out $15.1 million on the Senate race in Ohio where former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown is attempting to unseat Republican Jon Husted. The PACs plan to spend $2.2 million on one congressional races in Ohio as well.
more to come ...
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