Dem Talarico and GOP Governor Take
Largest Leads in 3 Months in New Poll
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
August 27, 2026
Democrat James Talarico enjoyed his biggest lead in three months when the latest poll on the U.S. Senate race in Texas found him ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by 6 points on Thursday while the GOP's other statewide candidates were in striking distance of Democrats with a little more than two months left before the midterm vote.
Governor Greg Abbott had his largest advantage over Gina Hinojosa since the second week of June when the Texas Public Opinion Research survey showed him in front of the Democrat by 7 points with support from 49 percent of 1,000 likely Texas voters who were surveyed over the course of three days in the past week.
The nonpartisan TPOR had Talarico ahead by 3 points in its most recent poll on the Texas Senate contest on the first two days after the GOP primary runoff election that Paxton won in the final week of May when he ousted longtime incumbent John Cornyn with 64 percent of the second round vote. But the state attorney general pulled even with Talarico for several weeks in June before a razor-thin lead in several polls evaporated after the Republican's holiday excursion to Europe during the Fourth of July weekend in the U.S.
Abbott largest lead came in the first few days of June when a Quantus Insights poll that found him up on Hinojosa by 8 points. A University of Texas survey a week later had the incumbent governor ahead by 7 points. Talarico's lead in the new TPOR poll was his widest since he was up by 7 in a Public Policy Polling survey that was taken several days before the runoff election when Cornyn was still an option.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey this week found Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick leading Democrat Vikki Goodwin by 6 points - a substantial swing since a Texas A&M poll showed the challenger up on the third-term incumbent by 2 points a month ago. But all of the other statewide races on the November ballot were closer in the new poll.
Republican Mayes Middleton lead Democrat Nathan Johnson by a mere 3 points in the new TPOR poll with 44 percent support. Republican Comptroller Don Huffines was ahead of Democrat Sarah Eckhardt by 2 points with 43 support while the GOP nominees were in front by 4 points in the other contests on the statewide ticket this year.
Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham and Agriculture Commissioner nominee Nate Sheets led Democrats Ben Flores and Clayton Tucker 44 percent to 40 percent while Republican Railroad Commission contender Bo French had 45 percent support compared to 41 percent for Democratic opponent Jon Rosenthal.
Talarico's support from Republican voters has the potential to be a game-changing factor - with the TPOR poll finding that 12 percent of the GOP voters in the sample are backing the Democrat in the Senate race compared to 1 percent of the Democratic voters who were tested giving Paxton the nod.
Talarico led Paxton among independent voters by 21 points with support from 51 percent while 14 percent remained undecided. Talarico was up the Republican AG by 27 points among Latino voters in the new TPOR poll with 59 percent support from that critical voting bloc that President Donald Trump won here in 2024. Talarico was ahead 65 points among Black voters with 78 percent support.
Talarico led 51 percent to 37 percent among female voters while Paxton had a 3-point lead among men at 48 percent.
Talarico led Paxton by almost 3 points on average in 10 polls that were taken on the Texas Senate fight in the last two months. Abbott has been ahead of Hinojosa by nearly 4 points during that same span of time.
more to come ...
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