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Potential Outcomes for the General Election in the Lone Star State |
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STATUS QUO |
BLUE WAVE |
TSUNAMI |
CAPITOL INSIDE |
STATEWIDE |
Dem +0 |
Dem +2 |
Dem +8 |
Dem +2 |
CONGRESS |
GOP +3 |
GOP +1 |
Dem +1 |
GOP +0 |
TEXAS SENATE |
GOP +0 |
Dem +1 |
Dem +3 |
Dem +0 |
TEXAS HOUSE |
Dem +3 |
Dem +10 |
Dem +16 |
Dem +10 |
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Early Vote Tracking App Sees Talarico Win
and Net-Gain of 0 for GOP on Congress Map
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
October 26, 2026
Democrat James Talarico would win the U.S. Senate seat in the upcoming midterm election while Republicans break even with the Democrats on a new congressional map that was drawn to give them five more seats if the nation's newest forecast for next week's midterms is on the mark.
Theoelections projections for the Lone Star State are based on an analysis of early voting over the course of six days when more than 4 million Texans cast ballots for the general election on November 3.
The new AI election tracking app sees a blue wave on the horizon in federal contests with Democrats on track to reclaim the majorities in the U.S. House and Senate. But the tide that Theo foresees may not be as bad for the GOP as it has the potential to be - with Governor Greg Abbott and five other Republicans on the statewide ticket below the U.S. Senate race projected to win at the polls next week by margins that are razor-thin in some cases.
Theoelections has Republican Bo French and Democrat Jon Rosenthal running dead even in an open race for the Texas Railroad Commission. French is projected to receive about 1,000 more votes than Rosenthal out of 10 million that it expects to be cast in the RRC race.
Theo predicts that Republicans will retain control of the Texas House after Democrats record a net-gain of 10 seats in the election less than eight days from now. The Legislature's lower chamber would have 78 Republicans and 72 Democrats in 2027 based on the current outlook on Theo. The GOP's current edge 19-11 edge in Texas Senate seats would remain the same based on the new app's forecast.
The Theoelections forecast is similar to the outlook on Capitol Inside, which has Talarico and Rosenthal flipping the U.S. Senate and railroad commissioner seats while the other statewide contests are ranked as toss ups or leans Republican. Capitol Inside tentatively projects a net-gain of 10 seats for the Democrats in the Texas House along with the conversion of one state Senate from red to blue.
Capitol Inside predicted earlier this month that the Democratic Party and the GOP would break even on the new congressional map that the Republicans in Austin redesigned last year at President Donald Trump's command to yield five additional districts for the state's ruling party.
Abbott and GOP lawmakers here fired the first shot in a nationwide war on redistricting in a move that prompted California Democrats to produce a new U.S. House map for a five-seat gain there this year. While Democrats are favored in all five targeted races in the Golden State, the Republicans in Texas would pick up two seats in Congress while Democrats flip two the GOP holds now for a net-gain of zero by both major party.
* U.S. Senate. The Theoelections forecast has Talarico up on Republican Ken Paxton by 4.3 points at 50.8 percent support based on the early vote so far.
* Governor. The third-term incumbent is projected to beat Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 1.6 points with 49.8 percent support based on the Theo review of the early vote.
* Lieutenant Governor. Another third-term incumbent, Republican Dan Patrick, would defeat Democrat Vikki Goodwin by 0.8 points with 50.4 percent support based on the Theoelections forecast.
* Attorney General. Republican Mayes Middleton is projected to defeat Democrat National Johnson by 1.6 points with 50.8 percent in the state lawyer's race.
* Comptroller. GOP Comptroller Donald Huffines in a 4-point favorite over Democrat Sarah Eckhardt with 52 percent - the highest mark for a Republican in a Texas statewide race in the Theo outlook for next week's vote.
* Land Commissioner. Incumbent Dawn Buckingham would win by 3 points with 51.5 support in a fight with Democrat Ben Flores.
* Agriculture Commissioner. Republican Nate Sheets is projected to beat Democrat Clayton Tucker by 3.2 points with 51.6 percent support.
* Railroad Commissioner. French and Rosenthal are deadlocked at 50 percent apiece in the new Theo forecast in the fight for a seat on the three-member commissioner that regulates the oil and gas industry here.
* U.S. House. Democrats are favored to flip Congressional District 15 and Congressional 23 while Republicans are expected to emerge victorious in Congressional District 9 and Congressional District 32 - two of the five seats that Republicans targeted for takeovers on the new Trump map.
* Texas House. Four South Texas seats that the GOP controls - House Districts 34, 37, 118 and 121 - are ranked as safe Democrat. House District 112 - a Republican seat on the north side of Dallas - is rated leans Democrat. Six House seats that the GOP is attempt to defend - House Districts 63, 80, 52, 138, 94 and 122 - are listed as tossups with Democrats having slightly better odds in four of those.
more to come ...
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