Talarico Draws All-Time Crowd for First
Tour Stop as Dem Poll Shows Him Up 3
Texas General Election Polls
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Capitol Inside
August 6, 2026
Another poll found James Talarico leading the U.S. Senate race in Texas on Thursday as the Democrat basked in the afterglow of a campaign rally that drew what appeared to be the largest crowd to ever attend an individual candidate's event in the history of the Lone Star State the night before.
The YouGov survey that was conducted for the Democrats' coordinated campaign in Texas found Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton with support from 48 percent of 1,002 registered voters who were tested during the second half of July. The poll was overseen by a new Texas-based research group called 254 Labs.
The 25 Labs/YouGov poll was the sixth consecutive gauge of the Texas Senate contest that showed the Democratic nominee running in front of the state's attorney general since the final week of June. Talarico had a 34-point advantage with independents voters in the latest survey on the Senate race in the new poll that found 58 percent of the voters more enthusastic about the Democrat's campaign than the Paxton bid. Talarico has led Paxton by 3 points on average in the five polls that were taken in the last two weeks in July.
As the GOP candidate in a state where the Republicans haven't lost a statewide race in 32 years, Paxton remains the favorite on prediction market and trading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which both had the GOP nominee listed on Thursday with a 52 percent chance of keeping the Texas seat red.
But the fact that Paxton is the Republican nominee in Texas has appeared to be the only thing going for a campaign that's foundered since taking off for a trip to Europe with a female traveling partner during the first week of July. Talarico has raised close to $68 million for the Senate battle in a 10-month span that ended June 30 compared to $9 million that the Texas AG has rounded up for the federal contest that he entered several months earlier.
Paxton has been trying to make up for lost time and the massive advantage that his Democratic rival has in money, momentum, organization and enthusiasim for their respective campaigns. Hoping to get some traction, Paxton launched a four-city Protecting the Promise tour this week in an attempt to play catch up with Talarico on the critical issue of affordability that wasn't a priority for the Republicans in Texas until now. Paxton's economic agenda revolves on tax deducations for homeowners and health care.
The AG's camp claimed that he drew 700 supporters to the first event on Tuesday in the Collin County suburb of Allen. The restaurant where the Paxton promise protection event took place has a maximum capacity of less than 200 patrons based on information on its web site. Paxton's audience for a rally in Houston on Wednesday night may have been smaller than he attracted the night before in in the DFW area.
Talarico's crowd was monstrous in comparison in the auditorium where he appeared last night in Tarrant County where President Donald Trump won by 5 points less than two years ago. The backdrop for the Democrat's event conjured visions of the sets at concerts for major rock and country music stars. The venue appeared packed based on the photos and videos that have emerged on social media since it ended.
Talarico used the first stop on his own 11-city swing to showcase the support he's attracting across the political spectrum - with appearances complete with glowing endorsements from former longtime Tarrant County judge Glen Whitley and the independent Arlington Mayor Jim Ross.
“I’m tired of criminals running for office," Ross told the audience. "Talarico is what is right for this state.”
Whitley unleashed a scalding critique of the Republican nominee in the Texas Senate fight. "I’m ashamed that Ken Paxton is even on the ballot," Whitley said. "He’s the most corrupt politician Texas has ever seen.”
more to come ...
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