Elections Guru Larry Sabato Shifts Texas
Senate and Governor Races in Dems Favor
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
August 26, 2026
Veteran elections analyst Larry Sabato moved the U.S. Senate race in Texas from leans red to toss up on Wednesday when he declared the governor's job here to be in play as well for the first time in his rankings for the midterm election 69 days from now.
Sabato - the founder of the University of Virginia Center for Politics - also shift the Congressional District 15 seat in Texas to the coin- flip category after having it rated as likely Republican for months before a recent bump to leans GOP.
One of the nation's most prominent and sometimes controversial soothsayers, Sabato kicked the CD 15 contest to toss up hours after Texas Southern University released a new poll that found Democrat Bobby Pulido leading U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz there by 5 points. Pulido, a Grammy-winning Tejano music star, had a six-point advantage in the only other CD 15 poll that was taken in late July by the pro-Democrat House Majority PAC.
The new poll that the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at TSU conducted August 18-22 showed Democratic U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of Brownsville leading GOP challengers by 11 points and 3 points respectively in Congressional District 28 and Congressional District 34.
Polls by Republican firms found Gonzales and Cuellar trailing Republicans Eric Flores and Tano Tijerina in the second half of June before the TSU survey found the incumbent Democrats out in front in fights for a pair of Texas seats that GOP lawmakers in Austin targeted for takeovers in 2026.
The Republicans ignited a nationwide redistricting war a year ago at President Donald Trump's command a year ago. Governor Greg Abbott has promised repeatedly that the GOP would flip all five seats that Trump demanded despite the odds against such a development from the moment the GOP-controlled Legislature approved the altered map.
Sabato, whose social media posts have drawn Trump's wrath at times, was the only major election projector who still had Republican Ken Paxton with the inside track to the Texas Senate seat before the reshuffling to toss up today.
Capitol Inside has the U.S. Senate contest in Texas on the leans Democrat list in the rankings for the general election. FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver has the Texas Senate fight leaning Democrat as well in his Silver Bulletin projections that show James Talarico with a 61 percent chance to beat Paxton in November. The RacetotheWH has Talarico ranked as a 65 percent favorite in a Texas Senate battle that it lists as leans Democratic as well.
Fox News and the Cook Political Report both shift the Texas Senate race from leans Republican to toss up in the past week or two.
But Sabato gave the Republicans in Texas considerably more cause for angst on Wednesday when he shuffled the fight here between Governor Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa from the safe GOP list all the way to leans Republican after bypassing the likely R column altogether. After ranking the Texas governor's race as solid Republican throughout the year, the Cook report shift it to likely GOP after beating Sabato to the punch on the Senate contest with the toss up redesignation.
Talarico led Paxton by almost 3 points on average in nine polls that have been taken on the Senate bout here in the past two months. Abbott in contrast has been up on Hinojosa by just over 3 points on average in polling on the fight for governor here in the same span of time.
The polls on the congressional battlefield have been few and far between up to now in the state where the Republican redistricting effort in 2025 prompted California Democrats to counter with a new map with five seats targeted for conversions to blue this year. The Democrats in the Golden State picked up one of the target seats in a special election - and they're favored to flip the other four in November in most forecasts for the fall.
The Republicans could have a net-gain of only one seat at best on the new Texas map if Pulido ousts De La Cruz, the GOP fails to flip Congressional District 35 and Gonzalez and Cuellar successfully defend the CD 34 and CD 28 seats in the upcoming election. Republicans are heavy favorites in two of the five U.S. House districts they expected to flip with a 50-50 shot at CD 35. That would give the Republicans three more seats in the Texas congressional delegation with four as the best case scenario.
The Republicans in Texas would be losers on two major fronts if Democrats flip all of the seats they targeted in California as expected on a Proposition 50 they didn't plan to draw until the GOP here forced their hand.
more to come ...
| Texas Congressional General Election Forecasts August 26 |
|
| FORECAST |
CD 9 |
CD 15 |
CD 23 |
CD 24 |
CD 28 |
CD 34 |
CD 35 |
CD 32 |
| Capitol Inside |
Likely R |
Toss Up |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Likely D |
Leans D |
Toss Up |
Likely R |
| Kalshi |
R 82% |
D 51% |
R 70% |
R 88% |
D 86% |
D 71% |
D 54% |
R 81% |
| Polymarket |
R 80% |
R 53% |
R 70% |
R 85% |
D 82% |
D 73% |
D 55% |
R 81% |
| RacetotheWH |
Likely R |
Leans R |
Tossup |
Likely R |
Tilts D |
Toss Up |
Toss Up |
Likely R |
| Split Ticket |
Likely R |
Toss Up |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Safe D |
Likely D |
Leans D |
Likely R |
| DDHQ |
Likely R |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Safe R |
Likely D |
Leans D |
Leans R |
Likely R |
| FiftyPlus One |
Safe R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
Safe R |
Leans D |
Toss Up |
Leans R |
Safe R |
| Cook Report |
Solid R |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Solid R |
Leans D |
Toss Up |
Leans R |
Solid R |
| UVA-Sabato |
Safe R |
Toss Up |
Likely R |
Safe R |
Leans D |
Toss Up |
Leans R |
Safe R |
|
| 
