Paxton and Talarico Dead Even in New Poll
that Finds Texas Governor Up on Dem by 6
Texas General Election Polling
Capitol Inside
June 29, 2026
Talarico Has Two-Point Lead
on Paxton in Texas Senate Poll
Democrat James Talarico had a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in a poll on the U.S. Senate race in Texas that was published on Tuesday by a Michigan firm that specializes in actionable intelligence.
The A2 Insights survey found Talarico up on Paxton by 2.3 points with support from 48.4 percent of 618 likely Texas voters.
Talarico had leads of almost 41 points among independents and 24 points among voters who were listed as non-white. More than 75 percent of the independent voters who were tested on the Texas Senate race disapproved of Paxton in the survey that the nonpartisan organization conducted here June 23 to 28.
Paxton led the Democrat by 11 points among white voters in the A2 survey. But the attorney general was up on Talarico by less than 4 points among men while the Democratic state representative led by 7 points among females in the survey.
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A New York Times poll found the U.S. Senate race in Texas to be a dead heat in a poll that was released on Tuesday with Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton both gaining support from 47 percent of the voters.
Governor Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 6 points with support from a narrow majority of 656 likely Texas voters who were interviewed on their cell phones for the New York Times/Siena University survey this month.
The NYT/Siena poll was conducted over a span of eight days that began a week after the Texas Republican Convention shut down in Houston on June 12 and ended on Saturday when the Democrats were wrapping up their state convention in Corpus Christi. Neither one of the major Texas party gatherings did not appear to have a noticeable effect on a Texas Senate race in which Paxton and Talarico had been running even since the state attorney general ousted longtime incumbent John Cornyn in a primary runoff election late last month.
Abbott's advantage over Hinojosa matched his average lead in nine previous polls that had been taken on the Texas governor's race since both contenders claimed their party's nominations in the primary election on March 3. Paxton - in sharp contrast - has been up on Talarico by one-third of a percentage point in a half-dozen surveys on the Senate competition here since the runoff in May.
The NYT/Siena poll found Talarico with support from 61 percent of Hispanics less than two years after President Donald Trump won a majority of the Latino votes here and turned South Texas and border counties that had been Democratic strongholds red. Talarico had a 27-point lead over Paxton among independents in the New York Times survey.
Talarico was ahead of Paxton in the state's largest cities in the new poll. But Paxton was "crushing" the Democrat by margins of 2-1 across the rest of the Lone Star State - according to a NYT analysis of the findings.
Fifty percent of the Texas voters in the new poll preferred that the Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate at the polls in November compared to 44 percent who would rather have Democrats in charge. But some of those who prefer GOP control in the upper house of Congress are refusing to back Paxton nonetheless based on the poll's results.
Abbott had 51 percent support compared to 44 percent for Hinojosa when their respective shares were rounded off but led by 6 points when they were not.
Talarico received a favorable rating from 45 percent of the NYT poll participants while 39 percent viewed him unfavorably. But Paxton was under water with 39 percent of the voters in the survey giving him a favorable rating compared to 50 percent who had an unfavorable view. Five precent of the Democrats gave Talarico an unfavorable mark while 7 percent of the Republians in the poll rated him unfavorably.
Fifty percent of the Texas voters in the NYT/Siena survey favored a generic Republican candidate for Congress compared to 45 percent who favored the Democrat. Six percent of the voters in the sample remained undecided in the Texas Senate contest.
more to come ...
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