Top-Ranked Polling Firms Find Democrats
Ahead in Texas on Eve of Midterm Election Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
November 2, 2026
Democrat James Talarico wrapped up a monumental U.S. Senate campaign on a high note after a pollster with a reputation as the nation's most accurate found him leading GOP foe Ken Paxton by a half-dozen percentage points in a survey on Monday.
The AtlasIntel poll showed Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa up on Governor Greg Abbott by 1.6 points on the eve of the general election when the incumbent will be trying to nail down a record fourth term. An Austin state representative who's father served as the Texas Democratic Party chair, Hinojosa had a one-point edge over Abbott in a New York Times/Siena University poll that was released on Sunday night. Talarico, who's also a Texas House member from the Capitol City, led Paxton by 7 points in the NYT/Siena survey on the Senate contest here.
Talarico was in front of Paxton by almost 4 points on average in 11 polls on the Texas Senate race in the final week before the vote. The Texas governor's has been a dead heat in the final stretch with Abbott leading Hinojosa by 1.3 points on average during the past seven days.
Talarico and Hinojosa teamed up for a rally on Sunday night in San Antonio at The Espee amphitheater that holds 3,000 people on the edge of downtown by the Alamodome. Paxton pulled the plug during the weekend on a rally that had been set for Monday at the Alamo - choosing instead of end his Come and Take It tour in heavily-Republican Conroe and his home base of Collin County with a stop in Allen. Paxton cancelled a Come and Take It rally that had been scheduled for Sunday in El Paso.
AtlasIntel is a Brazilian-based company that prominent election analyst Nate Silver ranked last year as the most accurate polling firm in the U.S. AtlasIntel had the best record in the political polling industry during the 2020 election in the U.S. Siena University is one of the country's top-rated pollsters as well - teaming up with the New York Times on some surveys in a partnership that's been one of the most spot-on in the U.S. as well.
The AtlasIntel poll, which was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, found Talarico with a 17-point lead among Hispanic voters with 58 percent support. Hinojosa was ahead of Abbott by 15 points among Latino voters in the AtlasIntel poll. Hinojosa and Talarico led their Republican opponents by 58 points and 63 points respectively among Black voters in the AtlasIntel survey. Abbott and Paxton fared best with the oldest voters and white males.
US Senate |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
PAXTON |
TALARCIO |
LEADER |
Average |
|
|
45.9% |
49.7% |
Talarico +3.8 |
|
10/27-11/1 |
1,215 LV |
43% |
50% |
Talarico +7 |
|
10/28-11/1 |
1,678 LV |
45% |
51% |
Talarico +6 |
|
10/31-11/1 |
1,089 LV |
48% |
48% |
Even |
|
10/27-30 |
900 LV |
45% |
48% |
Talarico +3 |
|
10/26-29 |
2,141 LV |
47% |
51% |
Talarico +4 |
|
10/22-28 |
800 LV |
48% |
52% |
Talarico +4 |
|
10/26-28 |
1,221 LV |
49% |
48% |
Paxton +1 |
|
10/20-27 |
923 LV |
43% |
49% |
Talarico +6 |
|
10/23-27 |
631 LV |
47% |
50% |
Talarico +3 |
|
10/21-25 |
2,000 LV |
47% |
49% |
Talarico +2 |
|
10/21-26 |
1,000 RV |
43% |
51% |
Talarico +8 |
Governor |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
ABBOTT |
HINOJOSA |
LEADER |
Average |
|
|
49.1% |
47.9% |
Abbott + 1.2 |
|
10/27-11/1 |
1,215 LV |
47% |
48% |
Hinojosa +1 |
|
10/28-11/1 |
1,678 LV |
48% |
49% |
Hinojosa +1 |
|
10/27-30 |
900 LV |
49% |
47% |
Abbott +2 |
|
10/26-29 |
2,141 LV |
50% |
49% |
Abbott +1 |
|
10/22-28 |
800 LV |
52% |
48% |
Abbott +4 |
|
10/26-28 |
1,221 LV |
51% |
46% |
Abbott +5 |
|
10/21-25 |
2,000 LV |
50% |
47% |
Abbott +3 |
|
10/21-26 |
1,000 RV |
46% |
49% |
Hinojosa +3 |
|
| 
