5 Seats Targeted for GOP Takeovers and 2 Seats Democrats Could Flip
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| FORECAST |
CD 32 |
CD 9 |
CD 15 |
CD 23 |
CD 35 |
CD 34 |
CD 28 |
NET |
| Kalshi |
R 88% |
R 84% |
D 89% |
R 62% |
D 69% |
D 88% |
D 92% |
R +1 |
| Polymarket |
R 88% |
R 82% |
D 87% |
R 61% |
D 66% |
D 88% |
D 92% |
R +1 |
| Vote Hub |
R 92% |
R 82% |
D 81% |
R 61% |
D 65% |
D 87% |
D 95% |
R +1 |
| Average |
R 89% |
R 83% |
D 86% |
R 61% |
D 67% |
D 88% |
D 93% |
R +1 |
|
Talarico Has Double-Digit Leads in Poll
in Targeted Districts Trump Won by 10
Gonzalez leads Flores by 7 points in CD 34 where Democrat Up 13 in Senate Race
while CD 35 nominees tied despite Paxton running 16 points behind at top of ticket
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
October 23, 2026
A new Washington Post poll on Friday that found Democrat James Talarico with larger leads over Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race in a pair of South Texas congressional districts that the GOP targeted for takeovers after President Donald Trump won both by double-digits in 2024.
The Washington Post/George Mason University survey showed Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez up on GOP challenger Eric Flores by 7 points with support from 50 percent of the voters who were tested in Congressional District 34. Talarico was in front of Paxton by 13 points in CD 34 where Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa led Governor Greg Abbott by 7 points with 52 percent support.
But the poll found Republican Carlos De La Cruz ahead of Democrat Johnny Garcia by 1 point in Congressional District 35 - one of five seats that Republicans in Austin redesigned to go red on a map that Trump ordered them to draw in special session last year. Garcia has appeared to be a slight favorite in CD 35 where he'd been up on De La Cruz by 2 points in two separate polls during the second week of October. But the GOP nominee was up by one in the Post poll with 48 percent of the participants in his corner in CD 35.
Talarico had a 16-point advantage in the Washington Post/George Mason survey in CD 35. But Hinojosa and Abbott was tied in CD 35 at 49 percent apiece in the new WP poll - a sign that Republicans have a decent shot to flip the district they thought would be a lock in 2026 after Trump won there by more than 10 percentage points two years ago in a swath of southeast Texas east of the San Antonio area.
But CD 34 - which stretches from the state's southern tip in Brownsville to Corpus Christi - appears to be posing a more difficult challenge for the ruling party with Gonzalez as a substantial favorite heading into the final 10 days before the midterm election.
The Washington Post poll findings on the U.S. Senate race in the targeted House districts represent a swing of 26 points in CD 35 and 23 points in CD 34 when compared to Trump's margins of victory there in 2024.
Victories by Democrats in CD 34 and CD 35 - coupled by a Bobby Pulido over U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Congressional District 15 - could leave the GOP with a net-gain of only one seat on the new map that Abbott repeatedly has said would yield five more for the Republicans. Pulido appears to be on track to oust the incumbent in CD 15. Republicans Alex Mealer and Jace Yarbrough are favored in Congressional District 32 and Congressional District 9 in races for seats in the Dallas and Houston areas that Democrats control now.
The GOP would emerge from the general election with 26 Texas delegation seats compared to 12 for the Democrats if all of the current favorites on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket finish first on November 3.
But Democrats have a growing shot at flipping Congressional District 23 as well at the polls this fall after Republican Brandon Herrera's probability of victory plunged overnight by 8 points on Kalshi and 9 points on Polymarket into the low 60s on both prediction platforms.
more to come ...
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