Goodwin Seizes Lead in Lt. Governor Race
in Texas A&M Poll that Finds Talarico Up 4
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
August 7, 2026
Put your seat belt on and stop the presses! Democrat Vikki Goodwin is leading third-term Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick in the race for Texas Senate president in a poll that Texas A&M University's Bush School of Government made public on Friday.
Goodwin - an Austin lawmaker who's served four terms in the Texas House - was up by 2 points in the on the incumbent lieutenant governor in the Texas Pulse poll with 48 percent support. The findings represent a swing of 7 percentage points in a statewide contest that Patrick led by 5 points in a Bush School survey on the race in June.
Goodwin and other down-ballot contenders for the Democrats appeared to be riding James Talarico's coattails as the party's nominee at the top of the ticket in a U.S. Senate race that he led by 4 points with 47 percent compared to 43 percent that Republican foe Ken Paxton received in the A&M survey that was taken in the closing days of July. Talarico and Paxton were deadlocked at 46 percent apiece in the school's gauge of the Texas Senate battle in June.
Governor Greg Abbott was ahead of Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 1 point in the new Texas A&M poll after posting a six-point lead in the June survey. Republican Mayes Middleton had an advantage of 2 points over Democrat Nathan Johnson in the Texas attorney general's race that features a pair of state Senate colleagues.
The battle for governor experienced a swing of 5 points in Hinojosa's in the Texas A&M poll favor while the AG's race. The poll's results on the Texas AG's fight represented a 3-point swing in Johnson's favor. All four statewide races that the Bush School survey tested fell within the margin of error of 4.7 points.
The Texas A&M University poll that was conducted with ReconMR marked the seventh consecutive survey that's found Talarico in front in the Texas Senate race that could determine which party controls the upper house in Washington D.C. next year. The Democratic state representative from the Capitol City has led the Texas attorney general by 3 points in the seven polls that have been conducted on the Senate race here since a New York Times found it dead even in the third week in June.
Abbott has promised Texas voters that Talarico has no chance to win. Patrick declared again this week that Talarico would be toast after voters learn about all the allegations and insults the Republicans have peppered him with since he claimed the nomination in March. The governor had more than $22 in the campaign bank on June 30 for every one dollar Hinojosa had in cash on hand.
But the A&M poll's biggest zinger came with the Goodwin lead in the lieutenant governor's contest for which Patrick had 111 times more cash stashed away on the last day of June than the Democrat who's seeking to oust him in the general election on November 3. Patrick raised almost $15 million in the current two-year cycle before the start of July compared to $1.3 million that Goodwin rounded up during that span of time.
Patrick, who served as President Donald Trump's state campaign chairman in all three races for the nation's highest office, has garnered substantial publicity that money couldn't buy during the past year as the chairman of the White House Commission on Religious Liberty. Patrick instructed Texas Senate committees last week to implement proposals that his work on the Trump religious freedom panel inspired.
Goodwin's lead in the new A&M survey may seem all the more remarkable in light of the fact that 56 percent of the voters in the sample did not know enough about her to have an opinion. Twenty-nine percent gave Goodwin a favorable rating compared to 14 percent who viewed her in a negative light. Patrick had a favorable ranking from 38 percent compared to 46 percent who rated him unfavorably.
ReconMR senior research analyst Lindsey Hendren said Talarico's lead among women vaulted from 9 to 13 points in the new poll that found Paxton's advantage among men shrink from 10 points to 6. Trump was 10 points under water in terms of his popularity in a state he won by 14 points in 2024 - with a favorable rate of 44 percent against an unfavorable mark of 54 percent.
Talarico led Paxton by 23 points among independent voters in the A&M poll.
more to come ...
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