Talarico Leads in 5th Senate Poll in a Row
as GOP Ahead in Other Statewide Contests
Texas General Election Polls
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August 4, 2026
Democrat James Talarico was up on Republican Ken Paxton by 2 percentage points in a poll that Texas Southern University released on Tuesday with all of the GOP's other statewide nominees leading Democratic foes heading into the final three months before the 2026 midterm vote.
Conducted by TSU's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, the survey of 1,200 likely Texas voters last week found Governor Greg Abbott in front of Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 6 points. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick had the biggest lead in the competition for non-judicial statewide posts in the TSU poll that showed him ahead of Democrat Vikki Goodwin by 7 percentage points.
The TSU survey found Republican Mayes Middleton with a 5-point advantage over Democratic rival Nathan Johnson in the race for Texas attorney general. Comptroller Don Huffines, who's had the job for four days, led Democrat Sarah Eckhardt by 6 points while Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham was up by 5 points on Democratic contender Ben Flores.
The Texas Railroad Commission fight was the closest statewide fight on the ballot here below the U.S. Senate race with GOP nominee Bo French in front of Democrat Jon Rosenthal by 3 points in the survey that was taken July 27 to July 30 by the Houston-based public school.
The poll was taken by TSU professor Michael O. Adams, the director of the Master of Public Affairs Graduate Program, and Rice University's Mark Jones, one of the leading experts in academia on politics in the Lone Star State.
The TSU survey was the fourth in the past two weeks that found Talarico on top in the battle that's crowning the Texas ticket and could swing the chamber's majority in Washington D.C. to the Democrats if the state representative from Austin hangs on to win. A Talarico win in November would give Democrats their first victory in a Texas statewide contest in 32 years.
Talarico had led Paxton in all five polls that have been taken on the Texas Senate race since a New York Times/Siena poll in the second half of June showed the candidates running even. But all but one of the five most recent polls that had the Senate battle here inside the margin of error - a sign that it could be destined to go down to the wire.
The TSU poll's executive summary included a couple of key findings that reflect Talarico's support from across the aisle.
* 96% of Paxton voters intend to vote for Abbott and 0% for Hinojosa, with 3% undecided. 90% of Talarico voters intend to vote for Hinojosa and 4% for Abbott, with 4% undecided.
* 89% of Abbott voters intend to vote for Paxton and 3% for Talarico, with 6% undecided. 98% of Hinojosa voters intend to vote for Talarico and 0% for Paxton, with 2% undecided.
But the TSU survey also showed the potential impact that Libertarian contender Ted Brown could have on the Texas Senate race with support from 2 percent - a sum that's the same as the Talarico lead the survey detected.
more to come ...
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