Talarico Has Huge Lead Among Voters
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August 2, 2026
President Donald Trump won the White House on the strength of support from Americans who hadn't been voting until he drew them to the polls in his first race 10 years ago. A new Texas poll makes it appear like Democrat James Talarico is doing the same in the U.S. Senate race here with jarring lead of 27 points over Republican Ken Paxton among the voters who stayed home in 2024.
The Wedgewood survey of 800 likely Texas voters on the final two days of July found Talarico up by 2 points on the state attorney general in the race for the U.S. Senate here this year with support from 48 percent of the Texans who it measured.
But the state representative from Austin was favored by 58 percent of the voters who failed to turn out for the presidential election two years ago. Paxton - in sharp contrast - had support from only 31 percent of the respondents who didn't vote in the last general election when Trump was the GOP's White House nominee for the third time in a row.
The Wedgewood poll marked the third time in the past week that Talarico had the inside track in polling on the Texas Senate contest. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey found the Democrat ahead by 5 points. A Fox News survey showed Talarico leading Paxton by 3 points. Talarico has been in front in all four of the polls that have been conducted here since a New York Times/Siena survey found the Texas Senate battle tied in the second half of June.
While Wedgewood is a relatively new player in the political polling arena, the group's findings were consistent with those that the other recent polls in Texas have produced in the past month. The Wedgewood poll found Governor Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 6 points - the widest gap in the second hottest contest on the Texas ballot in 2026.
Hinojosa had pulled within the margin or error in the TPOR and Fox News surveys that showed Abbott up by 3 points and 1 point respectively last week. Abbott hadn't been outside the error margins since the NYT/Siena poll found him leading Hinojosa by 6 points. Abbott was favored by 50 percent of the Texas voters in the Wedgewood poll compared to 44 percent who supported the Democratic foe who's also a Texas House member from the Capitol city.
Talarico had a 34-point lead among Hispanic voters in the Wedgewood survey, which showed him ahead of Paxton by 74 points among Black voters who were tested. Talarico got the nod from 64 percent of Hispanics and 85 percent of Blacks in the sample. Paxton led Talarico by two dozen points among white voters with 59 percent support.
Fifty-one percent of the male voters in the Wedgewood poll backed Paxton for the Senate seat compared to 40 percent who support the Democrat. But Talarico led the AG 55-41 among female voters in the sample.
Talarico was in front of Paxton by 30 points among voters ages 18 to 29 in the Wedgewood poll, which showed the Democrat with 60 percent support in the youngest group. Talarico led the Republican by 8 points among voters ages 30 to 44 while Paxton was favored 53-41 among those who are age 45 to 64. Paxton and Talarico were knotted at 48 percent support each among voters 65 and older in the Wedgewood poll.
more to come ...
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