Talarico Lead Widens in New Texas Polling
as Abbott Advantage Shrinks Same Amount
General Election Polls
Capitol Inside
July 28, 2026
Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton by 5 points in the latest new poll on the U.S. Senate race in Texas where Governor Greg Abbott was up on Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 3 points and the race for state attorney general is a dead heat.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,048 likely voters July 15-17 gave Paxton's camp some cause for optimism when it found 14 percent undecided with a larger share leaning toward the state attorney general in the Senate contest. But Talarico's advantage was 2 points wider in the new TPOR poll than it had been immediately after a GOP primary runoff election in May when the Democrat was up on Paxton by 3 points.
The Texas governor's lead over Hinojosa shrunk 2 points compared to a 5-point gap that TPOR found in the post-overtime survey. Republican Mayes Middleton was up by only 1 point over Democrat Nathan Johnson in the battle for attorney general in the new poll - making the state lawyer race a statistical deadlock. Ten percent of the voters were still wavering in the governor's race while 18 percent remained undecided on the fight for AG.
Talarico had huge leads among Hispanic and Black voters while Paxton was favored by voters who are white. Talarico led Paxton by 63 points among Black voters in the new TPOR poll despite former primary foe Jasmine Crockett's recent attempts to distance herself from the nominee and former colleague in the state House. Talarico was favored by 71 percent of the Black voters in the sample.
Talarico was up on Paxton 46 points among Hispanic voters that TPOR tested on the Senate race this month. Sixty-six percent of Latinos expressed plans to support Talarico in the general election less than three months from now. Paxton countered with a 20-point advantage among white voters with support from 53 percent.
Talarico led Paxton 43-36 among voters who don't have college education - a bloc in which President Donald Trump has been popular. Forty-five percent of the college educated voters in the TPOR poll favored Talarico to 44 percent for Paxton.
The poll found that 19 percent of the Texas voters who were undecided on the Senate contest leaned toward the state attorney compared to 10 percent who would be more inclined to back Talarico. One of the most telling numbers came in a test of the Senate contenders' strength across party lines. Eighty-one percent of Republicans favored Paxton for the Senate while 7 percent gave Talarico the nod. But only 1 percent of the Democrats in the TPOR survey expressed an intent to vote for Paxton this fall compared to 92 percent of the Democratic voters in the sample.
The Democrat led Paxton 42-35 on the question of who would best to tackle an affordability crisis while posting a 9-point advantage over the GOP nominee on which of the two would do the most to lower the cost of living.
Talarico was the most popular politico in the Texas Public Opinion Research poll in July with a net approval mark of 12 points. Paxton was the least popular with an approval rating that was 13 points under water. Abbott's approval ratings were 1 point more than his disapproval marks while Hinojosa was plus 7. But Hinojosa is still widely unknown among the electorate with 45 percent in the TPOR poll not sure whether to rate her favorably or not.
TPOR is a non-partisan enterprise that had done polling for Democrats in the past. The Austin-based firm conducted the survey in a partnership with the Brooklyn-based Slingshot Strategies.
more to come ...
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