Paxton Leads Cornyn by 9 Points on Eve
of Runoff with Trump Endorsement Ride
Texas Primary Runoff Predictions - General Election Rankings
Texas Primary Runoff & General Election Polls
Capitol Inside
May 25, 2026
Texas Republican Ken Paxton had a lead of more than 9 points over U.S. Senator John Cornyn on Monday in a poll that was released on the eve of the primary runoff election that will be the last hurrah for the loser in a monumental clash that featured President Donald Trump as the most significant player down the stretch.
The Quantus Insights survey of 1,018 like GOP runoff voters for three days ending Saturday found Paxton with 52.7 percent support compared to 43.4 percent for the incumbent. The Quantus poll that was taken May 21-23 has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
Trump interjected himself into the Texas race six days ago when he dished an endorsement to Paxton after teasing Cornyn for months on the possibility that he might be in line for it. The only other poil on the Texas race since the president proclaimed the state attorney general to be his choice for the Senate runoff showed Paxton all but running away with the nomination with a lead of 21 percentage points.
The SoCal Strategies survey that was taken on the first two days after Trump endorsed Paxton found the Texas AG with support from 57 percent of the GOP voters in the sample. The Quantus Insights poll that was made public on the day before the runoff election showed Paxton with an advantage less than half the size of the SoCal Strategies survey two days before it.
Quantus Insights found Paxton up on Cornyn by 7.5 points in a poll that was conducted two weeks after the primary election in March. That would suggest that the Trump endorsement was worth less than 2 percentage points to Paxton in the closing days before the election.
Paxton had a lead of 6.5 points on average in 16 polls on the Texas Senate competition in round two for the GOP. The state lawyer has a 15-point lead on the eve of the vote based on the average of the two surveys that were taken after Trump entered the ring.
Paxton had a 96.1 percent chance for a victory in Tuesday's runoff based on betting on the prediction market Kalshi on Monday. Kalshi traders gave Paxton a 31 percent shot at a double-digit win in overtime while 24 percent wagered that the attorney general would win by 5 percent to 10 percent on Tuesday.
more to come ...
Rankings Based on Overall Competitiveness, Significance for Fall
and the Candidates' Performances in the March 3 Primary Vote
 Projected Winner GOP |
 Projected Winner Dem |
|
|
| |
STATEWIDE |
| 1 |
U.S. Senate (R)
John Cornyn (I) 42.0%
Ken Paxton 40.5% |
| 2 |
Attorney General (R)
Mayes Middleton 39.1%
Chip Roy 31.6% |
| 3 |
Texas RRC (R)
Jim Wright (I) 32.1%
Bo French 31.8% |
| 4 |
Lieutenant Governor (D)
Vikki Goodwin 48.0%
Marcos Velez 31.5% |
| 5 |
Attorney General (D)
Nathan Johnson 48.1%
Joe Jaworski 26.4% |
| |
|
| |
LEGISLATURE |
| 1 |
House District 37 (D)
Ozzie Ochoa Jr. 46.0%
Esmi Cantu-Castle 32.0% |
| 2 |
House District 41 (D)
Julio Salinas 39.0%
Victor Haddad 37.0% |
| 3 |
House District 41 (R)
Sergio Sanchez 46.0%
Gary Groves 38.0% |
| 4 |
House District 149 (D)
Hubert Vo (I) 38.0%
Darlene Breaux 38.0% |
| 5 |
House District 100 (D)
Venton Jones (I) 49.0%
Amanda Richardson 35.0% |
| 6 |
House District 125 (D)
Adrian Reyna 39.0%
Michelle Vela 34.0% |
| 7 |
House District 131 (D)
Staci Childs 45.0%
Lawrene Allen 28.0% |
| 8 |
House District 126 (R)
Stan Stanart 49.0%
Kelly Peterson 29.0% |
| 9 |
House District 49 (D)
Montserrat Garibay 33.0%
Kathie Tovo 28.0% |
| 10 |
House District 97 (D)
Diane Symons 42.0%
Beth McLaugnlin 30.0% |
| 11 |
House District 40 (R)
Celeste Cabrera-Huff 38,0%
Nehemias Gomez 37.0% |
| 12 |
Senate District 19 (R)
Marcus Cardenas 44.0%
Robert Marks Jr. 32.0% |
| |
|
| |
|
|
| |
CONGRESSIONAL |
| 1 |
Congress District 35 (D)
Maureen Galindo 29.2%
Johnny Garcia 27.0% |
| 2 |
Congress District 35 (R)
John Lujan 33.0%
Carlos De La Cruz 26.8% |
| 3 |
Congress District 9 (R)
Alex Mealer 35.8%
Briscoe Cain 31.2% |
| 4 |
Congress District 33 (D)
Colin Allred 44.0%
Julie Johnson (I) 33.2% |
| 5 |
Congress District 18 (D)
Christian Menefee 46.1%
Al Green (I) 44.2% |
| 6 |
Congress District 19 (R)
Tom Sell 40.4%
Abraham Enriquez 18.8% |
| 7 |
Congress District 32 (R)
Jace Yarbrough 49.0%
Ryan Binkley 21.7% |
| 8 |
Congress District 38 (R)
Jon Bonck 46.8%
Shelly deZevallos 18.8% |
| 9 |
Congress District 24 (D)
Kevin Burge 48.0%
TJ Ware 26.1% |
| 10 |
Congress District 7 (R)
Alexander Hale 45.3%
Tina Cohen 26.8% |
| 11 |
Congress District 37 (R)
Ge'Nell Gary 35.3%
Lauren Pena 35.0% |
| 12 |
Congress District 5 (D)
Chelsey Hockett 45.9%
Ruth "Truth" Torres 41.6% |
| 13 |
Congress District 16 (R)
Adam Bauman 27.9%
Manuel Barraza 21.1% |
| 14 |
Congress District 30 (R)
Everett Jackson 38.0%
Sholdon Daniels 24.3% |
| 15 |
Congress District 33 (R)
Patrick Gillespie 35.5%
John Sims 22.3% |
| 16 |
Congress District 17 (D)
Milah Flores 42.6%
Casey Shepard 32.4% |
| 17 |
Congress District 14 (D)
Richard H. Davis 44.3%
Thurman Bill Bartie 31.3% |
| 18 |
Congress District 1 (D)
Yolanda Prince 44.5%
Dax Alexander 22.0% |
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
| 
