Trump Getting Rescue Ride Under Way Early
with Paxton Houston Fundraiser for GOP Elite
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
August 18, 2026
Having been a flop in the critical fundraising arena in the battle for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas in a midterm election 75 days from now, Republican Ken Paxton finally has President Donald Trump coming to his aid with their plans to pass the hat together at a reception for wealthy donors in Houston next week.
Trump is slated to be the star at a Republican National Committee in the state's largest city on August 27 at a location that has yet to be disclosed. The president plans to lead the cheers for Paxton in Dallas on September 9 and 10 at an event that's being billed as a midterm convention even though there will be no platform fight, no delegate selection process or rules committees like the state party's biennial gatherings or nominating events for the national parties in presidential election years.
Trump and Paxton apparently decided that the rescue ride could not afford to wait with the addition of the fundraiser in the Bayou City to the president's itinerary two weeks before the novel national convention begins in Dallas. Paxton has been desperate for help when it comes to raising money. He found himself at a massive disadvantage in a primary runoff fight with the incumbent John Cornyn before the president bailed the attorney general out with an endorsement a week before the overtime vote.
Paxton has been no match for Talarico in most phases of the Texas Senate fight. The Democrat scored another punch that attracted substantial attention on Tuesday when a former high-ranking deputy on incumbent John Cornyn's staff spurned the Republicans and signed on to work for Talarico in the Senate race. The defection of Jacob Smith poked another hole in the unity effort that Governor Greg Abbott and Paxton have touted with visions of restoring unity in a badly-divided GOP before the election on that's only 76 days away. Paxton suggested in an TV appearance today that Talarcio had been able to buy Smith off. Smith repeated what Paxton foes have been saying about him for years.
“Ken Paxton is the most corrupt, self-dealing politician in Texas who would sell their futures to the highest contributor just to hold onto power," the ex-Cornyn staffer said in an email. "I’m encouraging all my fellow Republicans who know Ken Paxton is unfit to serve in the Senate to finally hold him accountable at the ballot box.”
But Paxton is relying on Trump as a cure-all for an anemic campaign that's unfolded more like a part-time endeavor than a Talarico bid on perpetual overdrive. The AG and his allies in the GOP here expecting the president to shower Paxton with superlatives while posing for pictures together at the midtern gatheirng in Dallas next month.
Paxton and the Republicans have shown no concerns about a replay of a blue wave that almost cost the GOP a Senate seat here in 2018. The AG's team refuses to believe that Trump is as unpopular at polls that have shown his approval ratings stuck at all-time lows for months with no sign of him doing anything to bring them up. They are counting on Trump to light a fire under a MAGA base that's been uncharacteristically listless in a move that sparks and fuels a record turnout that's enough to offset the loss of support from independents, moderate Democrats and Hispanic voters in particular that the Republicans thought they needed to win here until now.
Paxton expected major Cornyn contributors including major party committees at the national level to rally behind his campaign after the runoff in late May. But the surge failed to materialize - and Paxton raised only $1.6 million in the second quarter when Talarico blew it up with a record $30 million haul in the three-month span that ended June 30. Paxton had raised $9 million in his first 15 months as a candidate for the federal post while Talarico raked in a total of $69 million in 10 months in the Senate race. Paxton entered July with less than $1.8 million in cash reserves when Talarico reported having almost $22 million in the campaign bank.
Trump's appearance in Houston appears to be a response to a SOS from Paxton's camp that the AG issued in a recent plea for financial help that was widely perceived as a sign the post-runoff infusion that he envisioned hadn't come.
The RNC's invitation for the Houston event a week from Thursday gives donors an opportunity to serve on the host committee for the reception at a price of $443,000 for a couple. Roundtable tickets go for $250,000 per couple while photo opportunities for couples are available tor only $88,600 each. Couples prone to penny-pinching can get into the event for $10,000 apiece.
Paxton hasn't held near as many rallies or other public events as Talarico, who's crisscrossed the state many times over and packed venues from rural cities that are heavily Republican to major metros that have been blue for years. Paxton has relied mostly on television interviews to promote his campaign - and he's been accused of lying about the size of the crowds that he's drawn to events in the past few weeks. When Paxton announced a four-city swing to major cities in early August, Talarico countered by launching a tour that took his campaign to 11 cities including the state's largest to smaller places like Abilene and Killeen.
Paxton got a substantial bump in the polling after the runoff for several weeks in June. But Paxton put the campaign aside in early July so he could vacation with a girlfriend in Europe where they were caught on a cell phone campaign in London on Independence Day back in the states. Paxton struggled to get his campaign back on track after his return from the trip, falling behind Talarico in all of eight polls that were taken on the Senate race in July before vaulted to a one-point lead in an Emerson College survey on the contest here last week.
Paxton got some juice back on Kalshi as well this week after watching his ranking as a 58 percent favorite disappear in a month. But Paxton bounced back after Talarico got up to 52 percent on Kalshi during the weekend. Paxton was given a 51 percent probability of winning on Kalshi on Monday and Tuesday. But the competitor site Polymarket still listed Talarico at 52 percent on Tuesday night.
Several major forecasts have Talarico with probabilities of victory that ranged tonight from 54 percent percent in the Split Ticket model on 270toWin to 67 percent on the RacetotheWH. Paxton has been a 51 percent favorite for the past two days on the Decision Desk HQ forecast for the Senate race in Texas this fall. The Texas Senate race is rated as a toss up on a majority of the major forecasts while ranked as leans Democrat by several others including Capitol Inside - the only site that projects the outcome of races at the state level here.
more to come ...
| Texas Congressional General Election Forecasts August 16 |
|
| FORECAST |
CD 9 |
CD 15 |
CD 23 |
CD 24 |
CD 28 |
CD 34 |
CD 35 |
CD 32 |
| Capitol Inside |
Likely R |
Tossup |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Likely D |
Leans D |
Tossup |
Likely R |
| Kalshi |
R 82% |
D 51% |
R 70% |
R 88% |
D 86% |
D 71% |
D 54% |
R 81% |
| Polymarket |
R 80% |
R 53% |
R 70% |
R 85% |
D 82% |
D 73% |
D 55% |
R 81% |
| RacetotheWH |
Likely R |
Leans R |
Tossup |
Likely R |
Tilts D |
Tossup |
Tossup |
Likely R |
| Split Ticket |
Likely R |
Tossup |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Safe D |
Likely D |
Leans D |
Likely R |
| DDHQ |
Likely R |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Safe R |
Likely D |
Leans D |
Leans R |
Likely R |
| FiftyPlus One |
Safe R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
Safe R |
Leans D |
Tossup |
Leans R |
Safe R |
| Cook Report |
Solid R |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Solid R |
Leans D |
Tossup |
Leans R |
Solid R |
| UVA-Sabato |
Safe R |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Safe R |
Leans D |
Tossup |
Leans R |
Safe R |
|
| 
