Texas Democrat James Talarico's odds for flipping a U.S. Senate went up on Friday in four major forecasts for the 2026 midterm election after President Donald Trump showered praise on GOP nominee Ken Paxton at a fundraiser in Houston the night before.
Talarico's probability of winning the Texas seat jumped 7 points to 61 percent in the Split Ticket Senate Model that had the Democrat listed at 54 percent and holding steady for several weeks.
The Decision Desk HQ had Paxton's odds on the upswing at the start of the week with a 52 percent chance of prevailing in the Texas Senate contest in November. But after moving Talarico into a tie with Paxton at 50 percent each by the middle of the week, the Democrat's probability of victory vaulted all the way to 55 percent in the DDHQ forecast on Friday.
After the FiftyPlusOne forecast for the Texas fight had Paxton and Talarico deadlocked at 50 percent apiece earlier this week, the Democrat was rated as a 55 percent favorite on that site as well today.
The nation's two most seasoned election analysts - the Cook Political Report and University of Virginia's Larry Sabato - both moved the Texas Senate race to the toss up column this week after having it ranked leans Republican and likely GOP respectively before the shift.
The prediction platform Polymarket gave Talarico a 50 percent probability of victory on Friday compared to 49 percent for his Republican opponent. The trading market Kalshi had both Texas Senate contenders knotted today at 50 percent apiece. Paxton's camp thought he was on the verge of a surge when Kalshi had him as high as 52 percent this week after Talarico reached that mark there last week. The lines on Kalshi and Polymarket are determined by the amount of money that's being wagered on each candidate like the spreads on professional sports events.
Most of the forecasts are based on a variety of variables that begin with the polls while taking into account polling trends, voting history, fundraising, candidate quality, endorsements and other factors that are unique to individual contests.
None of the political and data experts that make projections on races for Congress and governorships appeared to view Trump's stumping for Paxton as a cause to raise his probability of winning in forecasts where it fell across-the-board instead in the wake of Trump's appearance on his behalf in the Bayou City last night.
Paxton's campaign has floundered since taking a break for a vacation in Europe in the first part of July. The state attorney general hasn't been competitive in the fundraising arena - having raised $9 million by the end of June when Talarico reported a $69 million haul in a shorter period of time for his bid. Talarico had led Paxton in nine of 10 polls that were taken on the Senate battle in the past two months. Paxton had an edge of 1 point in the other.
But Paxton has been telling supporters that he expects Trump to lead him to the winner's circle with the fundraiser in the largest Texas city on Thursday and an upcoming appearance at a novel midterm convention in Dallas where the president is slated to speak both nights.
Governor Greg Abbott's probability of winning dropped from 86 percent to 83 percent on Polymarket on Friday while falling from 89 percent on Kalshi today to 86 percent.
more to come ...
BREAKING: I just filed an amicus brief and am calling for a pause of the 765-kV transmission line buildout pending legislative review. pic.twitter.com/0szAJzEM9V
— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) August 28, 2026
