House Speaker Blitz Creates Appearance
GOP Majority Could Be in Danger at Polls
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 19, 2026
Texas House Republicans were assured this week at a caucus conclave in Austin that they're in better shape than the GOP's statewide candidates and have no need to worry any longer about the threat of being swept out of office by a killer blue wave this fall.
But that's exactly what they were saying before President Donald Trump's first midterm election in 2018 when the Democrats flipped a dozen state House seats, two Texas Senate districts and two more in the congressional delegation. A coordinated leadership campaign that GOP Speaker Dustin Burrows announced on the eve of the caucus gathering gives the impression that the Republicans - beneath the facade of nonchalance - fear the House majority could be at serious risk in November.
Capitol Inside has three South Texas House seats that Republicans are attempting to defend rated as leans Democrat in the rankings for the general election. Seven House seats that the GOP controls are currently listed as toss ups with the odds for them remaining red starting to fall.
Seven GOP seats that are ranked leans Republican could be in danger as well if a wave goes as deep as 2018. Eight more House districts that are red now could be in the path of a wave that goes full-tilt tsunami at a time when the national conditions are much worse for the Republicans than they were eight years ago.
The newly-minted Speaker's Strike Force tour is set for an 11-day run in October with 27 stops from Lubbock to the Rio Grande Valley in cities and suburbs where 25 to 30 GOP seats may be in reach for Democrats if Trump's second midterm election proves to be as disastrous for the Republicans as the first.
Democrats would reclaim the majority in the Texas Legislature's lower chamber with a net gain of 14 seats in the general election on November 3. Republicans have ruled the House for almost two dozen years. The GOP has an 88-62 advantage there now. Capitol Inside's tentative forecast has Democrats flipping nine Texas House seats. But the number could be higher at a time when Trump is historically unpopular and killing the Republicans in close races and doing nothing to reverse the party's fortunes before an election 45 days from now beyond belated infusions of super PAC cash for swing races.
While the general election will be a referendum on Trump first and foremost, the Republicans in down-ballot contests in Texas can expect to suffer even more with state Attorney General Ken Paxton as the GOP nominee at the top of the ticket in a U.S. Senate race that Democrat James Talarico has been leading. Paxton brings more baggage to the fight than any candidate in Texas for a major office in modern history has here - and his close association with the president could be the kiss of death.
The U.S. Senate seat is ranked here as leans Democrat - and all of the other non-judicial statewide contests in Texas have been shuffled to the leans GOP category amid the theory that the Democrats could run the table if Governor Greg Abbott loses to Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa.
The Burrows blitz - which he's promoting with the slogan One Party One Mission - appears designed to give GOP representatives and candidates in open races a boost in districts that won't be immune to a blue wave that appears inevitable at this point. The Speaker's Strike Force will be coming to the rescue of candidates at three different levels of vulnerability.
The top tier features GOP State Reps. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi and Janie Lopez of San Benito along with Republican nominee Jorge Borrego of San Antonio. All three are running in districts where Hispanics account for 60 percent to 80 percent of the populations. The Republicans made the mistake of believing that Trump's success with the Latino electorate in 2024 represented a permanent realignment. But Talarico has huge leads over Paxton in polling on Hispanic support for the Senate race - and the legislative and congressional districts that Republicans flipped in heavily-Hispanic areas appear to be lost causes for the state's ruling party in 2026.
Burrows is refusing to throw in the towel, however, with Speaker Strike Force stops set in Corpus Christi, Harlingen and San Antonio during the week before the midterm vote. The second-tier on the Burrows blitz features candidates in races that are ranked leans GOP - with three seats in Collin County, one in Denton County, two in Tarrant County and one in the suburbs west of Houston.
The third tier has two seats in Fort Bend County, two in Collin County and one in Bell County, one in Bexar and one in Williamson County. The House speaker plans to stump for candidates in all three tiers.
Speaker's Strike Force - Republicans at Risk
October 19. Lubbock - Carl Tepper
October 20. Prosper/Celina, McKInney, Allen - Matt Shaheen, Keresa Richardson, Jeff Leach
October 21. Flower Mound, Rowlett - Ben Bumgarner, Angie Chen Button
October 22. Arlington, Mansfield/Kennedale, Fort Worth/Benbrook - HD 94 open, HD 96 open, John McQueeney
October 23. College Station/Bryan, Spring, Atascocita/Humble - Paul Dyson, Valoree Swanson, Charles Cunningham
October 24. Cypress, Houston, Bunker Hill/Hedwig Village - Tom Oliverson, Lacey Hull, Mano DeAyala
October 26. Katy/Cinco Ranch, Fulshear/Simonton, Richmond/Cumings - Mike Schofield, Matt Morgan, Gary Gates
October 27. Nassau Bay, Alvin/Pearland, Corpus Christi - HD 129 Open, Jeff Barry, Denise Villalobos
October 28. Harlingen/San Benito - Janie Lopez
October 29. Uvalde, San Antonio - Don McLaughlin, Marc LaHood, Mark Dorazio
October 30. Belton, Georgetown, Round Rock - Hillary Hickland, Terry Wilson, Caroline Harris Davila
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