Abbott Foresees Unity for GOP in the Fall
after Rough Night with Personal OT Slate

Texas Primary Runoff Predictions - General Election Rankings

Texas Primary Runoff & General Election Polls

Capitol Inside
May 26, 2026

Governor Greg Abbott predicted on Tuesday night that Texas Republicans would mount a united front for fights with Democrats in the fall after the candidates he supported in the primary runoff election all lost or were losing as the midnight hour approached.

"A united Republican Party will drive victory, and with the primaries complete, we are laser focused on delivering a decisive victory in November," Abbott said in a post on X. "Together, we will crush socialist Democrats' dream of turning Texas blue with the same failed policies that have brought chaos to states like California, New York, and Minnesota."

All three of the Republicans for Abbott threw his weight behind in congressional contests in round two were defeated in runoffs that were blowouts while Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright trailed challenger Bo French throughout the evening in a race in which the governor was significantly involved on the incumbent's behalf.

Wright appeared to be in big trouble when French led by more than 5 points in votes that were cast early in the Texas Railroad Commission race in overtime. But the former Tarrant County GOP leader's advantage shrunk steadily for several hours to a mere 1.4 points by the time midnight arrived when French had 50.7 percent of the runoff vote with 88 percent of the ballots counted.

Abbott and other high-ranking Republicans like Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick had warned GOP voters that French could be a nightmarish distraction for the ticket in Texas this fall as a result of bombastic rhetoric about Islam and Muslims in the U.S and other extreme views. French lost two races for state representative in the Fort Worth area before the stint in the local party leadership post en route to his first venture statewide.

A Wright victory at the finish line would keep the governor from being shut out in the runoff with the slate he backed for in the overtime vote. But Abbott would have four defeats against zero wins in the second round vote if Wright fails to overtake French at the finish line at some point on Wednesday.

The Republican governor campaigned for State Rep. Briscoe Cain of Deer Park in a bid for the Congressional District 9 seat in the Houston area in an open contest on the state's new U.S. House map. Alex Mealer beat Cain by almost 40 points with 69 percent of the vote.

Abbott supported Abraham Enriquez in a bid for an open Congressional District 19 seat in West Texas. Tom Sell defeated the governor's candidate by close to 30 points in the runoff with more than 64 percent as the last of the runoff ballots trickled in early Wednesday morning.

Abbott's most stinging loss in the runoff election may have come when the candidate he backed in Congressional District 35 - State Rep. John Lujan of San Antonio - lost by almost 20 points to Carlos De La Cruz on Tuesday. Lujan led De La Cruz by 6 points in the primary election on March 3.

To be fair, Mealer and De La Cruz both had endorsements from President Donald Trump, who didn't lose a race he'd entered in the Texas runoff election. The governor would have scored an easy win in the runoff if another candidate he'd endorsed - Jace Yarbrough - hadn't received a free pass when a GOP rival pulled the plug on his bid after the primary vote. Yarbrough won easily on Tuesday in an open Congressional District 32 race.

more to come ...

 


 


Rankings Based on Overall Competitiveness, Significance for Fall
and the Candidates' Performances in the March 3 Primary Vote

Projected Winner GOP
Projected Winner Dem
 

STATEWIDE

1

U.S. Senate (R)
John Cornyn (I) 42.0%
Ken Paxton 40.5%

2

Attorney General (R)
Mayes Middleton 39.1%
Chip Roy 31.6%

3

Texas RRC (R)
Jim Wright (I) 32.1%
Bo French 31.8%

4

Lieutenant Governor (D)
Vikki Goodwin 48.0%
Marcos Velez 31.5%

5

Attorney General (D)
Nathan Johnson 48.1%
Joe Jaworski 26.4%

 

 

 

LEGISLATURE

1

House District 37 (D)
Ozzie Ochoa Jr. 46.0%
Esmi Cantu-Castle 32.0%

2

House District 41 (D)
Julio Salinas 39.0%
Victor Haddad 37.0%

3

House District 41 (R)
Sergio Sanchez 46.0%
Gary Groves 38.0%

4

House District 149 (D)
Hubert Vo (I) 38.0%
Darlene Breaux 38.0%

5

House District 100 (D)
Venton Jones (I) 49.0%
Amanda Richardson 35.0%

6

House District 125 (D)
Adrian Reyna 39.0%
Michelle Vela 34.0%

7

House District 131 (D)
Staci Childs 45.0%
Lawrene Allen 28.0%

8

House District 126 (R)
Stan Stanart 49.0%
Kelly Peterson 29.0%

9

House District 49 (D)
Montserrat Garibay 33.0%
Kathie Tovo 28.0%

10

House District 97 (D)
Diane Symons 42.0%
Beth McLaugnlin 30.0%

11

House District 40 (R)
Celeste Cabrera-Huff 38,0%
Nehemias Gomez 37.0%

12

Senate District 19 (R)
Marcus Cardenas 44.0%
Robert Marks Jr. 32.0%

   
   
 

CONGRESSIONAL

1

Congress District 35 (D)
Maureen Galindo 29.2%
Johnny Garcia 27.0%

2

Congress District 35 (R)
John Lujan 33.0%
Carlos De La Cruz 26.8%

3

Congress District 9 (R)
Alex Mealer 35.8%
Briscoe Cain 31.2%

4

Congress District 33 (D)
Colin Allred 44.0%
Julie Johnson (I) 33.2%

5

Congress District 18 (D)
Christian Menefee 46.1%
Al Green (I) 44.2%

6

Congress District 19 (R)
Tom Sell 40.4%
Abraham Enriquez 18.8%

7

Congress District 32 (R)
Jace Yarbrough 49.0%
Ryan Binkley 21.7%

8

Congress District 38 (R)
Jon Bonck 46.8%
Shelly deZevallos 18.8%

9

Congress District 30 (R)
Everett Jackson 38.0%
Sholdon Daniels 24.3%

10

Congress District 24 (D)
Kevin Burge 48.0%
TJ Ware 26.1%

11

Congress District 7 (R)
Alexander Hale 45.3%
Tina Cohen 26.8%

12

Congress District 37 (R)
Ge'Nell Gary 35.3%
Lauren Pena 35.0%

13

Congress District 5 (D)
Chelsey Hockett 45.9%
Ruth "Truth" Torres 41.6%

14

Congress District 16 (R)
Adam Bauman 27.9%
Manuel Barraza 21.1%

15

Congress District 33 (R)
Patrick Gillespie 35.5%
John Sims 22.3%

16

Congress District 17 (D)
Milah Flores 42.6%
Casey Shepard 32.4%

17

Congress District 14 (D)
Richard H. Davis 44.3%
Thurman Bill Bartie 31.3%

18

Congress District 1 (D)
Yolanda Prince 44.5%
Dax Alexander 22.0%

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

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