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| Congressional challengers Tano Tijerina and Eric Flores give speeches at the GOP midterm convention in Dallas September 10 |
Talarico's Stock Rises after GOP Convention
as Dem Goes from Underdog to Fave in CD 15
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
September 16, 2026
Texas Democrat James Talarico's odds vaulted to all-time highs in trading on the major prediction markets on Tuesday when his campaign for the U.S. Senate appeared to be getting the bump from the GOP midterm convention that fall foe Ken Paxton expected to reap.
The Republicans' visions of a five-seat gain on a new Texas congressional map they redrew for President Donald Trump could be going up in flames as well based on forecasts that show the GOP poised for a gain of one or two here at the most if the current favorites in seven competitive contests all prevail at the finish line.
Paxton's camp sought to dispel perceptions of growing Talarico momentum when it claimed that the rally that Trump had the party stage in Dallas had a slingshot effect on his campaign for the Senate seat exactly as it had predicted going into the event.
But Talarico was rated as the favorite in 10 major forecasts on Wednesday - with probabilities of winning that ranged from 54 percent on Kalshi to 73 percent on the election projection site Race to the WH. The Democratic Senate nominee was a 60 percent favorite on average when all 10 current forecasts for the Texas race on Tuesday night were calculated together.
Talarico's probability of winning the Texas seat hit 56 percent on Polymarket and 54 percent on Kalshi last night after rising to 58 percent in election tracker forecasts on Vote Hub and The Economist. The Democrat's odds for the Texas Senate race ranged on Tuesday from 55 percent on Decision Desk HQ to 73 percent on the data-driven site Race to the WH. Talarico led Paxton by 60 points on average in 10 major election projection sites - including three that ranked the Texas Senate battle as leans Democrat compared to seven that still have it rated as a toss up.
Paxton was rated as a 62 percent favorite on Polymarket at the start of June. The prediction platform's current odds for the Texas Senate race represent an 18-point swing for Talarico since that time. Talarico's probability of victory on Kalshi and Polymarket is five percentage points higher than it was a month ago - with a boost of two to three points since Paxton rallied with Trump in Dallas last week.
Paxton had been counting on a game-changing boost from the party's inaugural convention that the Republican National Committee held at Trump's behest for the ostensible sake of helping Republicans in close races. But Trump berated Paxton's looks and speaking abilities in a keynote speech at the event in a way that dramatically overshadowed the praise the president dished out when he touted the Texas Senate contender as the best state attorney general in the nation's history. The Paxton campaign is giving the impression, however, that the degrading marks from the president had no impact at all on contest in which his own polls say he's surging.
The Economist, which had Paxton as the frontrunner with a 68 percent shot at winning on June 15, rated Talarico's chances for a victory in November at 58 percent on Tuesday. Vote Hub boost Talarico's odds from 55 percent to 58 percent this afternoon.
All of the top election trackers show the Austin state representative ahead in the Texas Senate race with odds that ranged Tuesday night from 55 percent on Decision Desk HQ to 73 percent on the data analysis site RacetotheWH.
The tracking and projection site Split Ticket listed Talarico at 63 percent tonight while Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin ranked the Democrat as a 60 percent favorite, a slight reduction from a 63 percent in August. The RacetotheWH, Split Ticket and the Silver Bulletin have the Texas Senate fight ranked as leans Democrat while it remains a toss up in a majority of the forecasts for the race.
The outlook is arguably worse for the GOP in Texas on a House battlefield that hasn't been as friendly for the state's ruling party as its lawmakers and leaders in Austin thought it would be on a map that ignited a nationwide war on redistricting last year. Democrats are widely favored to seize the House majority in November and have a slight edge in most forecasts in the fight for control of the Senate.
Democrat Bobby Pulido's probability of flipping a South Texas congressional seat went up as well on Kalshi, Polymarket and the election projection platform Vote Hub in the wake of the novel midterm event last week in Dallas.
Pulido was listed as a 65 percent favorite on Polymarket on Wednesday in a bid to unseat U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Congressional District 15. Kalshi and Vote Hub both gave Pulido a 62 percent chance of winning on the respective sites today. After rating De La Cruz's probability of victory at 53 percent exactly one month ago, Polymarket's current projection for CD 15 represents a swing of 18 points in favor of the Democrat.
Democrat Johnny Garcia was ranked on Wednesday as a slight favorite over GOP nominee Carlos De La Cruz on Polymarket, Kalshi and Vote Hub in an open race for Congressional District 35 - one of five Texas seats the Republicans in Austin targeted for takeovers on a map that Trump ordered them to reconfigure last summer with five additional seats for their party. Garcia's probability of winning ranged from 56 percent to 58 percent in the three forecasts today.
Governor Greg Abbott has promised several times in recent months that the Texas map that ignited a nationwide war on redistricting would produce a five-seat gain for the Republicans. The GOP's nominees are heavy favorites in two targeted races - Congressional District 9 in Houston and Congressional District 32 in the Dallas area. While Garcia has better odds than De La Cruz, whose sister is the incumbent in CD 15, the projections for CD 35 haven't changed as much as those for the battle that the Democrat Pulido has been leading in a district that GOP lawmakers here thought they'd made bullet proof.
The Republicans would settle for a net-gain of only one House seat in the Lone Star State if Pulido and Garcia hold on to fragile leads and win in November and heavy favorites in the only other five contests that appear to be competitive here prevail at the finish line.
more to come ...
Updated September 16, 2026 |
|
| FORECAST |
CD 15 |
CD 35 |
CD 34 |
CD 23 |
CD 28 |
CD 9 |
CD 32 |
| Kalshi |
D 62% |
D 56% |
D 76% |
R 68% |
D 84% |
R 88% |
R 86% |
| Polymarket |
D 65% |
D 57% |
D 76% |
R 66% |
D 83% |
R 91% |
R 89% |
| Vote Hub |
D 62% |
D 58% |
D 84% |
R 62% |
D 92% |
R 90% |
R 90% |
|
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