Probability of Victory and Margin Forecast General Election November 3
|
| FORECAST |
CD 32 |
CD 9 |
CD 15 |
CD 23 |
CD 35 |
CD 34 |
CD 28 |
NET |
| Kalshi |
R 85% |
R 76% |
D 89% |
R 51% |
D 75% |
D 89% |
D 92% |
R +1 |
| Polymarket |
R 86% |
R 73% |
D 89% |
D 50% |
D 73% |
D 90% |
D 92% |
R +1 |
| Prediction Edge |
R 85% |
R 75% |
D 89% |
R 54% |
D 74% |
D 89% |
D 92% |
R +1 |
| Average |
R 87% |
R 79% |
D 85% |
R 58% |
D 69% |
D 88% |
D 93% |
R +1 |
|
| AI FORECAST |
CD 32 |
CD 9 |
CD 15 |
CD 23 |
CD 35 |
CD 34 |
CD 28 |
NET |
| Theo Elections |
R 87% |
R 73% |
D 81% |
D 73% |
D 88% |
D 97% |
D 99% |
|
| |
R +7.0 |
R +3.9 |
D +5.5 |
D +3.8 |
D +7.4 |
D +12.6 |
D +15.1 |
R +0 |
|
Democrats Favored to Flip 2 Statewide Posts
with Shot at Breaking Even on Congress Map
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
November 1, 2026
Texas Republicans could be on the brink of destruction in the countdown to a midterm election that could produce a statewide sweep for the Democrats, a Democratic majority in the state House and an abysmal ending for a congressional map that ignited a war on redistricting the GOP is poised to lose.
Democrat James Talarico is the consensus favorite in the U.S. Senate race by every objective standard going into Tuesday's midterm vote. A Talarico win could be the tipping point that that puts Democrats back in charge of Congress' upper house.
Governor Greg Abbott is in serious danger of losing to Gina Hinojosa in a contest that could take the entire GOP statewide ticket down with it. But the third-term incumbent who's spent $173 million on his re-election bid in 2026 remains a narrow favorite based on projection market trading and election tracker forecasts for the two marquee contests on the general election ballot in Texas this week. Abbott and Talarico are projected to win by less than four percentage points in both cases.
Democrats have a good shot to win a second statewide contest with Jon Rosenthal as the narrow betting favorite in a fight with Republican Bo French for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission.
The Republicans appear destined for embarrassment with a congressional map they redesigned last year to give the GOP five more seats in the Texas delegation. After targeting five seats for takeovers on orders from President Donald Trump, the Republicans could end up breaking even on the U.S. House battlefield in the nation's largest state. The best-case scenario for the GOP in the competition for Congress in Texas may be a net gain of one seat. Adding insult to injury, California Democrats expect to flip all five congressional seats they redrew in direct response to Trump's Texas map.
Democrats have a shot to reclaim a Texas House majority for the first time in two dozen years with a net-gain of 14 seats on Tuesday. Democrats, who have 62 seats on the current roster with 88 Republicans, would flip a dozen House seats and protect all of those they control now based on an AI projection on a new app Theo Elections. The House would have 77 Republicans and 74 Democrats in such an event.
While Abbott and Paxton have refused to admit they could lose on Tuesday, Comptroller Don Huffines sounded the alarms on Sunday based on an early vote that he said Democrats won by almost 26,000 after the GOP had 945,000 more cast before election day in 2024 and 565,000 in the midterm election in 2022.
"Santa Anna thought the war was won at the Alamo," Huffines said in a post on X. "Then came San Jacinto. Texas is never decided by how the fight starts. It is decided by how we finish."
Huffines painted a portrait of hopelessness and despair if Republicans don't turn out in stronger numbers in texas on Tuesday than they did for early voting, which ended on Friday. "Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America," the comptroller warned. "When the foundation breaks, it ALL falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA."
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is a slight favorite over Democrat Vikki Goodwin in the state Senate President's contest. GOP State Senator Mayes Middleton has been favored by a slightly larger amount than Patrick in the closing days of the campaigns in a fight with Democratic colleague Nathan Johnson in a fight to replace Paxton as the Texas attorney general. Comptroller Don Huffines, Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham and agriculture commissioner nominee Nate Sheets are slightly bigger favorites over Democrats than the lieutenant governor.
But the Democrats, who haven't won statewide in Texas since 1994, could snap the streak with victories by Talarico in the Senate competition and Jon Rosenthal in a fight for railroad commissioner on Tuesday's ballot. Rosenthal has a slight edge over Republican Bo French in the RRC race that appears to have a thriller finish shaping up like the fights for governor and U.S. Senate here.
Paxton's campaign is sputtering to a close without the bang he envisioned with the apparent cancellation of the grand finale he'd planned at the Alamo on the eve of Tuesday's midterm vote. Paxton, who cancelled a rally that was set for Sunday in El Paso, decided to bring his bid to close in the friendlier confines of Conroe and his home base in Collin County with a stop in Allen on Monday.
The state attorney general's Come and Take It tour drew meager crowds last week in Odessa, San Angelo and Abilene. Paxton touted the audience he attracted in Abilene in a post on social media Saturday night. "Abilene packed the room with patriots!," Paxton announced on X. But a photo that he included showed a room with approximately 60 people at the AG's event. The Paxton rally in Abilene took place on the day after Talarico drew 4,000 people to an event in Lubbock on the same night that Trump staged a rally for Paxton there.
After being outclassed by the Democrat in every aspect of the competition for the Texas Senate seat, Paxton is pinning his hopes on the fact that he's the GOP nominee in the nation's largest red and Elon Musk's money as a product of close to $200 million that the world's richest human has poured into the race through super PACs backing the Republican. Here are the favorites with less than two days before the vote ...
U.S. Senate - James Talarico, a Democratic state representative from Austin, led the GOP's Ken Paxton by 3 points on average in the polling on the Texas Senate race in October. Talarico is a 69 percent favorite based on the average of nine election tracking forecasts for Tuesday's election. Fox News reported on Sunday that the Texas Senate race has the highest price tag in history for a non-presidential contest at $573 million and counting. A Fox News poll on Sunday found the Texas Senate contest tied. But Talarico led by 4 points in a YouGov survey on the Texas Senate race that surfaced on Sunday as well. A New York Times/Siena University poll that was made public on Sunday night found Talarico up by 7 points.
Governor - Greg Abbott, the Republican incumbent whose projected winning margin falls between 3 and 4 percentage points with a lead in the polls of less than 2 points on average in October. All of the GOP's candidates in statewide races below the governor's office are narrow favorites over Democrats with the exception of the race for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission. But Democrat Gina Hinojosa led the incumbent by 1 point in a New York Times/Siena poll that came out on Sunday night. All of the GOP's statewide contenders could go down if Abbott falls on Tuesday.
Railroad Commission - Jon Rosenthal, a Democratic state representative from Houston, had winning probabilities of 57 percent and 53 percent on the prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket respectively on Sunday. But Rosenthal's odds had soared to 60 percent and 59 percent on Kalshi and Polymarket on Saturday. GOP foe Bo French will hope that's a sign the race is turning back in his favor.
Congress - The Republicans are projected to emerge with a net-gain of one seat on a Texas congressional map that Donald Trump ordered GOP lawmakers in Austin to craft with five more seats for the state's ruling party. Democrat Bobby Pulido as a substantial favorite over Republican U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Congressional District 15 while Republicans are favored in two of the five races in U.S. House districts that were redrawn for them. But Democrats have a good shot to flip the Congressional District 23 seat as well with Katy Padilla Stout's odds rising at the expense of GOP nominee Brandon Herrera there. Republicans are projected to wrestle Congressional Districts 9 and 32 from the Democrats while falling short in targeted districts where U.S. Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar are heavy favorites. Democrat Johnny Garcia appears to have the inside in Congressional District 35 - one of the five seats that Republicans targeted for taking over on the Trump map.
Texas Legislature - Democrats would pick up a dozen state House seats based on an AI analysis on the app Theoelections.com. But the Democrats flipped 12 Texas House seats in the first midterm election on Trump's watch in 2018 when the conditions weren't anywhere near as bad for the Republicans as they are now with most unpopular American history taking them down on his shoulders. Democratic State Senator Taylor Rehmet appears to be on track to win a rematch in Senate District 9 where he captured the seat in a special election runoff in January. The major parties appear destined to break even in the fight for state Senate seats this week. Republicans might see a net gain of six to eight seats for the Democrats to a moral victory on the Texas House battlefield, however, on Tuesday. | 
