Five Seats Targeted for GOP Takeovers and Two Seats Democrats Could Flip
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| FORECAST |
CD 32 |
CD 9 |
CD 15 |
CD 23 |
CD 35 |
CD 34 |
CD 28 |
NET |
| Kalshi |
R 90% |
R 81% |
D 83% |
R 65% |
D 62% |
D 85% |
D 89% |
R +1 |
| Polymarket |
R 90% |
R 84% |
D 83% |
R 65% |
D 59% |
D 84% |
D 88% |
R +1 |
| Vote Hub |
R 91% |
R 87% |
D 74% |
R 61% |
D 59% |
D 86% |
D 92% |
R +1 |
| Average |
R 90% |
R 84% |
D 80% |
R 64% |
D 60% |
D 85% |
D 90% |
R +1 |
|
Capitol Inside Shifts Two Dozen Texas Races
in Dems' Favor as GOP Braces for Tsunami
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
October 14, 2026
Texas Republicans are quietly conceding that they're on the verge of getting eviscerated with internal polling pointing to the possibility that Democrats could sweep the statewide races, post a net-gain on the congressional battlefield, take the Texas House back and pick up state Senate seats for gravy.
The prospects for a blue wave that unleashes a tsunami like no one has ever seen appeared to be an all-time high in Texas on Tuesday as the candidates on the 2026 midterm ballot entered the final three weeks before the vote.
Capitol Inside marked the milestone by shifting two dozen contests for state and federal offices in Texas in favor of the Democrats in our rankings for the general election on November 3. The forecast here sees a disaster shaping up for the Texas Republicans that could be considerably worse than the wave that Democrats rode to victories in 2018 in 14 legislative and two congressional districts the GOP controlled.
All the ingredients for a perfect storm are in place with President Donald Trump as the most unpopular person in the job in modern times, gasoline and grocery prices at record highs, an Iran war with no end in sight and anger among Hispanic voters who feel betrayed after backing him in record numbers in 2024. Incumbents from the party that's been in charge have the most to fear in races from voters who will take their unhappiness with the president out on them.
* Texas Senate. Soures close to high-level GOP strategists and candidates say that a pair of Republican incumbents - State Senators Charles Schwertner of Georgetown and Bob Hall - are trailing Democrats by 5 points on average in Texas Senate Districts 5 and 2 where they're facing Paul Thomasson and Keenen Colbert respectively. Republican Dennis Paul of Houston has fallen behind Democrat Shannon Dicely of Friendswood in an open race in Senate District 11 based on GOP polling that's been under wraps so far.
Defeats by Paul, Hall and Schwertner would leave the Republicans with 16 Senate seats compared to 15 for the Democrats if State Senator Taylor Rehment of Fort Worth beats GOP foe Leigh Wambsganss in a rematch in Senate District 9 where he's been up more than 20 points in polling that's remained confidential up to now. The districts where Schwertner, Hall and Paul are running were all moved on Tuesday from leans Republican to the toss up column in the rankings here. The Senate currently contains 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats.
* Statewide. The forecast here has Democrat James Talarico on the inside track in the U.S. Senate race that he's led for the past three months. The U.S. Senate seat has been ranked here as leans Democrat since last week. After moving Governor Greg Abbott's fight with Democrat Gina Hinojosa to the toss up list earlier this month, statewide races that feature Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and agriculture commissioner hopeful Nate Sheets as the nominees were shuffled on Tuesday from leans Republican to the coin flip column. Patrick probably can expect to lose the Texas Senate president's post to Democrat Vikki Goodwin if Abbott falls in the race on the ballot right above lieutenant governor. The same goes for Sheets in a fight with Democrat Clayton Tucker as the Republican who Abbott rallied behind in the primary election when he unseated Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller. The Texas Railroad Commission contest that pits Republican Bo French against Democrat Jon Rosenthal got a bump today to leans Democratic after a brief stay on the toss up list. French - like U.S. Senate contender Ken Paxton - has been his own worst enemy by far this year.
* Congress. The GOP could be in for its most embarrassing statistic from 2026 on a U.S. House map that Trump ordered Republicans in Austin to draw with five more seats for the state's ruling party. The
Congressional District 23 where Brandon Herrera is trying to protect the seat for the GOP was kicked today from toss up to leans Democrat. Capitol Inside tentatively foresees victories by Democrat Katy Padilla Stout in CD 23 and Bobby Pulido in a bid to oust GOP U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Congressional District 15. The CD 15 contest was relocated from toss up to leans Democrat last week. The forecast here has Democrats hanging on to three of the five Texas congressional seats that Republicans in Austin targeted for takeovers on a map that Trump ordered them to redraw last summer. The GOP's candidates are running as favorites in the other two U.S. House districts the Republicans entered the election year thinking they were poised to flip. But don't be surprised if we move the Congressional 9 clash between Republican Alex Mealer and Democrat Leticia Gutierrez from leans Democrat to toss up between now and the vote in three weeks at the race the GOP's odds have been falling there in the past week or two.
* Texas House. Capitol Inside shifted a handful of Texas House seats that Republicans are fighting to save from the coin flip column to leans Democrat on Tuesday as well. Nine House races for seats that the Republicans have now were moved from likely to leans GOP this afternoon. House seats that Republican State Reps. Jeff Leach of Allen and Matt Shaheen of Plano are seeking again in Collin County were moved from leans GOP to toss up on Tuesday. Five Texas House seats that had been ranked as safely Republican were elevated on Tuesday to the likely GOP category, which means some could be in play if the wave is as giant as it has the potential to be at this point. The current Texas House forecast here has Democrats adding a dozen seats to their column at the polls this fall. But the majority in the Capitol's west wing would change hands with a net-gain of 14 for the Democrats - and that appears to be a rapidly-growing possibility based on the current conditions.
The rankings and forecast are both subject to change at any point between now and the time the ballots are cast early next month. But it could get worse for the Republicans before it gets better.
more to come ...
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| Lieutenant Governor |
Leans GOP |
|
Toss Up |
| Agriculture Commissioner |
Leans GOP |
|
Toss Up |
| Railroad Commission |
Toss Up |
|
Leans Dem |
| Congressional District 23 |
Toss Up |
|
Leans Dem |
| Congressional District 9 |
Likely GOP |
|
Leans GOP |
| Congressional District 2 |
Safe GOP |
|
Leans GOP |
| Senate District 9 |
Leans Dem |
|
Likely Dem |
| Senate District 2 |
Leans GOP |
|
Toss Up |
| Senate District 5 |
Leans GOP |
|
Toss Up |
| Senate District 11 |
Leans GOP |
|
Toss Up |
| House District 63 |
Toss Up |
|
Leans Dem |
| House District 108 |
Toss Up |
|
Leans Dem |
| House District 112 |
Toss Up |
|
Leans Dem |
| House District 121 |
Toss Up |
|
Leans Dem |
| House District 66 |
Leans GOP |
|
Toss Up |
| House District 67 |
Leans GOP |
|
Toss Up |
| House District 20 |
Likely GOP |
|
Leans GOP |
| House District 65 |
Likely GOP |
|
Leans GOP |
| House District 80 |
Likely GOP |
|
Leans GOP |
| House District 89 |
Likely GOP |
|
Leans GOP |
| House District 106 |
Likely GOP |
|
Leans GOP |
| House District 126 |
Likely GOP |
|
Leans GOP |
| House District 127 |
Likely GOP |
|
Leans GOP |
| House District 14 |
Safe GOP |
|
Likely GOP |
| House District 29 |
Safe GOP |
|
Likely GOP |
| House District 54 |
Safe GOP |
|
Likely GOP |
| House District 93 |
Safe GOP |
|
Likely GOP |
| House District 99 |
Safe GOP |
|
Likely GOP |
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