Texas Dems Picks to Flip 3 Statewide Posts,
Split in Congress and Net 10 in Texas House Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
November 2, 2026
Republican Ken Paxton's camp is claiming in private conversations that he has the U.S. Senate seat locked up on the eve of the midterm election in Texas where Democrat James Talarico as run as the favorite for months by every objective standard in a race with thriller finish possibilities.
Governor Greg Abbott has promised Texans repeatedly that Talarico has no chance to win the Senate race. Abbott campaign has dismissed polls that have shown his own race in striking distance for Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. Nearing the end of a third consecutive term, Abbott has refused to believe he was capable of losing regardless of all the signs that have established that as a real possibility in the path of an oncoming tidal wave.
But Tuesday's general election will be a referendum on President Donald Trump at a time when he's the most unpopular America leader in history and doing nothing to get back in the electorate's favor.
The Capitol Inside forecast for Tuesday's general election in Texas has substantial destruction in store for the GOP with the loss of the Senate seat that Talarico is the consensus favorite and choice here to win.
Democrat Jon Rosenthal gets the nod here over Republican Bo French in a race for one of the three seats on the Texas Railroad Commission that regulates oil and gas. But Republicans are slight favorites in the view here in all of the other statewide contests on the Texas ballot - except for one.
Abbott is still a narrow betting favorite in a bid for a record fourth term as the state's top leader. But the governor's race has been ranked as a toss up here for several weeks. Abbott in a squeaker would be the safest play. Tuesday's vote has the potential to be an anti-incumbent extravanganza - and those who've been around the longest will be the most vulnerable in some cases. Hinojosa is the pick here in the fight for governor in the Lone Star State.
The CI forecast has the major party fighting to a draw on a congressional map that Trump ordered the Republicans in Austin to redraw with five more seats for the GOP. Democrat Bobby Pulido and Katy Padilla Stout are the picks here in races for seats Republicans are attempting to defend in Congressional District 15 and Congressional District 23.
Democrats are favorites in three of the five U.S. House districts the Republicans targeted in special session last year - Congressional District 35 with Johnny Garcia doing battle with the GOP's Carlos De La Cruz and incumbents Vincente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar as huge favorites in Congressional District 34 and Congressional District 35.
All four of those contests are unfolding in South Texas districts that Trump carried in 2024. Republicans, according to the forecast here, are on track to flip Congressional District 9 and Congressional District 32 where Alex Mealer and Jace Yarbrough are the nominees for the GOP. But Democrats have a shot in CD 9 where Mealer's odds have fallen in recent weeks. That would put the Democrats in position for a net-gain of one seat on a map that was crafted for a five-seat loss.
Democrats can reclaim the Texas House majority with a net-gain of 14 seats or more on Tuesday. The forecast here has the Democrats emerging from the election with 10 more seats in a chamber where the Republicans would have a 78-72 edge in 2027.
GOP Speaker Dustin Burrows' team has downplayed the potential for a blue wave - predicting a loss of two or three House seats as a worst case scenario.
The Democrats in races down the ballot are counting on an epic showing by Talarico at the polls on Tuesday. All the signs point to a Talarico win. The Austin Democrat is projected to win by 3.5 points on average in six separate forecasts for the Texas Senate fight. Talarico was a 73 percent favorite on average in nine midterm election tracking forecasts on Monday night. Talarico led Paxton by an average of 3.9 points in 11 polls that were taken on the Senate race in the past week.
A New York Times/Siena University poll on Monday showed Talarico leading Paxton by 7 points while the Democrat was up by 6 in a survey AtlasIntel conducted here in the past few days. AtlasIntel has been ranked as the most accurate pollster in the U.S. in the past six years or so. Talarico's probability of victory hit record highs on Monday on the major prediction platforms - with Kalshi ranking him as a 74 percent compared to 75 percent on Polymarket.
Here are our key predictions ...
U.S. Senate - James Talarico. The Austin Democrat is projected to win by 3.5 points on average in six separate forecasts for the Texas Senate fight. Talarico was a 73 percent favorite on average in nine midterm election tracking forecasts on Monday night. Talarico led Paxton by an average of 3.9 points in 11 polls that were taken on the Senate race in the past week. A New York Times/Siena University poll on Monday showed Talarico leading Paxton by 7 points while the Democrat was up by 6 in a survey AtlasIntel conducted here in the past few days. AtlasIntel has been ranked as the most accurate pollster in the U.S. in the past six years or so. Talarico's probability of victory hit record highs on Monday on the major prediction platforms - with Kalshi ranking him as a 74 percent compared to 75 percent on Polymarket.
Governor - Gina Hinojosa. Incumbent Greg Abbott's probabilty of winning plunged 7 points on Monday to an all-time low on Kalshi at 59 percent. The governor's chances for victory dropped to a record low on Polymarket today as well at 61 percent. Abbott trailed Hinojosa by one point in a New York Times/Siena University poll that was released today. The Democrat led Abbott by 1 point in an AtlasIntel survey on the race on Monday. Abbott was up by 1.3 points on average in eight polls conducted on the race in the final week before the vote. The Texas governor's race is really too close for anyone to call with any degree of confidence. But we'll take a shot for the sake of sport anyway here with this upset prediction.
Railroad Commission - Jon Rosenthal. The Houston Democrat would have been a prohibitive underdog if GOP voters hadn't ousted the incumbent who the governor supported vigorously in a primary runoff election. Bo French gave the Republicans a nominee who's been a loose cannon with the lips. Rosenthal's chances have soared in the past month - hitting a new high on Monday on the prediction market at 60 percent. French was conspicuously missing today from a list of endorsements that Trump touted in Texas races in a post on X. French will find it tough to win after being treated like a pariah within his own party. But this could go to the wire.
Congress - Break even. Democrats flip CD 15 and CD 23 to offset GOP gains in CD 9 and CD 32 - two of the five districts that were redrawn for Republicans to flip. Johnny Garcia holds CD 35 for the Democrats while incumbent Democrats Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar defeat Trump-backed Republicans in CD 34 and CD 28 - two of the South Texas seats that the GOP targeted for takeovers on the new map. CD 9 could stay blue if the wave is as big as it appears to have the potential to be. That would put Democrats in position for a net-gain of one seat on a map that was supposed to be a burial ground for them. The GOP would retain its current edge of 25-13 in the Texas congressional delegation if both parties flip to seats apiece on Tuesday.
Texas House - Democrats +10. The conditions are much worse for the Republicans than they were in Trump's first midterm election when Democrats flipped 12 state House seats with a ride on a blue wave in 2018. But there are fewer districts that are vulnerable for takeover by the Democrats than there were eight years ago when Trump was just warming up. Democrats need a net-gain of 14 House seats or more to take control of the chamber. That's a definite possibility.
Texas Senate - Break even. Incumbent Democrat Taylor Rehmet beats Republican Leigh Wambsganss in a rematch in Senate District 9 where he captured the seat in Tarrant County in a special election runoff. Trump won by 17 points in SD 9. Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is a slight favorite here over Democrat Vikki Goodwin for a fourth term as the Texas Senate's presiding officer. But Patrick's fears about losing a couple of red seats may have been overexaggerated in an election from which neither party comes out ahead.
| Texas Polling General Election 2026 |
US SENATE |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
PAXTON |
TALARCIO |
LEADER |
Average |
|
|
45.8% |
49.1% |
Talarico +3.9 |
|
10/27-11/1 |
1,215 LV |
43% |
50% |
Talarico +7 |
|
10/28-11/1 |
1,678 LV |
45% |
51% |
Talarico +6 |
|
10/31-11/1 |
1,089 LV |
48% |
48% |
Even |
|
10/27-30 |
900 LV |
45% |
48% |
Talarico +3 |
|
10/26-29 |
2,141 LV |
47% |
51% |
Talarico +4 |
|
10/22-28 |
800 LV |
48% |
52% |
Talarico +4 |
|
10/26-28 |
1,221 LV |
49% |
48% |
Paxton +1 |
|
10/20-27 |
923 LV |
43% |
49% |
Talarico +6 |
|
10/23-27 |
631 LV |
47% |
50% |
Talarico +3 |
|
10/21-25 |
2,000 LV |
47% |
49% |
Talarico +2 |
|
10/21-26 |
1,000 RV |
43% |
51% |
Talarico +8 |
GOVERNOR |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
PAXTON |
TALARCIO |
LEADER |
Average |
|
|
49.0% |
47.2% |
Abbott + 1.3 |
|
10/27-11/1 |
1,215 LV |
47% |
48% |
Hinojosa +1 |
|
10/28-11/1 |
1,678 LV |
48% |
49% |
Hinojosa +1 |
|
10/27-30 |
900 LV |
49% |
47% |
Abbott +2 |
|
10/26-29 |
2,141 LV |
50% |
49% |
Abbott +1 |
|
10/22-28 |
800 LV |
52% |
48% |
Abbott +4 |
|
10/26-28 |
1,221 LV |
51% |
46% |
Abbott +5 |
|
10/21-25 |
2,000 LV |
50% |
47% |
Abbott +3 |
|
10/21-26 |
1,000 RV |
46% |
49% |
Hinojosa +3 |
|
| 
