Money Gap May Not Be Same Advantage
for GOP in Fight for Texas House Control

Texas General Election Polls

General Election Rankings

Capitol Inside
October 6, 2026

State Rep. John McQueeney and Ellen Fleischmann have raised $1.9 million combined in fights to keep a pair of Texas House seats red in districts in southern Tarrant County where President Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2024. Their Democratic opponents - Ebony Turner and Beth McLaughlin - rounded up $138,000 between the two of them for bids in House District 96 and House District 97 respectively.

But the ultimate equalizer is lurking on the horizon with a blue wave taking aim at Texas and getting bigger every day. And the Tarrant Democrats who've had one dollar for every $14 their higher-rolling GOP foes have mustered up appear to have 50-50 shots at flipping both seats at a unique point in time when the money isn't worth as much or necessary for success.

The races for the Districts 96 and 97 are listed as toss ups in the Capitol Inside rankings for the 2026 midterm election - having been shifted from leans GOP to coin flips in the past week as the prospects for a perfect storm have been increasing every day. Republicans are attempting to defend eight House seats that are ranked as toss ups with less than four weeks to go before the vote.

Democrats are the favorites here in five state House seats that the GOP controls including three in South Texas districts that Republicans flipped in recent years. Democrats would reclaim the majority in the Legislature's lower chamber with a net gain of 14 seats at the polls on November 3. The current Capitol Inside forecast has Democrats adding a dozen seats to their count in the House. But a Democratic majority, which no one imagined as a possibility at the outset of the election year, could be in the making with a political climate that's toxic for the Republicans amid conditions that are deteriorating rapidly for the GOP.

But the Republicans are still number one when it comes to raising money for races for the House. The Republicans in the 10 red districts that Democrats have their best odds to win raised more than $6.5 million combined from July 1 to the end of the latest reporting period on September 24 - based on an examination of reports that were due on Monday at the Texas Ethics Commission. The Democrats in the 10 hottest House races reported a collective haul of $2.5 million for the span of almost three months.

The GOP nominees in the 14 House districts that the Democrats have the best chance to take raised over $8.4 million combined during the period. Democratic rivals reported a total take of $2.7 million in the same time frame. That gives the GOP's candidates an advantage of no less than 3 to 1 in the donor dollar chase for the general election.

But 13 of the 14 Republicans in the races that could be stepping stones to the first Democratic majority since 2001 are ranked as toss ups or leans or likely Democrat despite the massive and predictable advantage the Republicans have in the fundraising arena. Here are some highlights ....

* San Antonio Democrat Kristian Carranza raised almost $445,000 in the past three months for an open House District 118 race against Republican Jorge Borrego, who reported donations of $238,000 during the period. Carranza had a cash balance of nearly $384,000 on September 24 when Borrego had less than $23,000 in reserve. Carranza, who ran unopposed in the primary, raised a total of $873,000 in her second consecutive bid in HD 118 with 30 days still to go before the vote. Borrego, who claimed the GOP nomination in a primary runoff election, had reported a total take of $712,000 for the Bexar County race. HD 118 is one of two Republican seats that are ranked as likely Democrat.

* State Rep. Janie Lopez recorded the only seven-digit haul in the past three months after raising almost $1.1 million during the period. The second-term Republican from San Benito pushed her total fundraising tally to $1.5 million with the new report for a re-election bid in House District 37. Democrat Ozzie Ochoa Jr. raised one-tenth as much as the incumbent with $99,000 from July 1 to September 24 to push his total take to $150,000 in HD 37. But the HD 37 contest is rated leans Democrat despite the huge fundraising gap. The blue wave could be especially tough for incumbents to survive especially in South Texas where substantial numbers of Hispanics who backed President Donald Trump in 2024 are supporting Democrats this time around.

* Nine of the Democrats in the ten races for House seats most likely to flip reported six-figure hauls in the past three month. Six of those raised more than $200,000 during that time frame. But nine of ten Republicans in the most competitive House contests rounded up over a half-million during the period that ended September 24. All or most of those would expect to be running as favorites in a relatively conventional election season. None are now.

more to come ...