Paxton First Texas Republican to Run
Statewide as Underdog in 21st Century
Texas General Election Polls
General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
August 12, 2026
Republican Ken Paxton found himself making history again on Wednesday when Democratic opponent James Talarico solidified his status as a near-consensus favorite for the U.S. Senate in Texas based on the lion's share of forecasts for the seat that could decide the majority if the Democrats win it.
No Republican has run as an underdog in a statewide race in the Lone Star State in nearly 30 years of GOP rule here. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz is the only Republican here during that span of time to face a Democrat who came close in a statewide contest in Texas when he beat Beto O'Rourke by less than 3 points in 2018. The GOP run could be on the verge of ending based on the information below.
The site Race to the WH listed the Texas Senate race today as tilt Democrat with Talarico as the projected victor with a 70.3 percent chance to seize the seat in the general election on November 3. The Race to the WH's forecast for the fall gave the Democrats a 57 percent chance of reclaiming the Senate majority with a projected 51 seats. Race to the WH predicted that Talarico would win by 3.6 percentage points in the midterm election this fall.
The popular prediction market and betting platform Kalshi boost Talarico's chances on Wednesday by a point to 53 percent. Kalshi listed Paxton as a 58 percent favorite a month ago before the Republican's lead evaporated and Talarico claimed the inside track there at the start of the week. Kalshi raised Talarico's probability of winning to 55 percent on Wednesday night.
Polymarket had Paxton in front until it shifted the favorite tag to Talarico for the first time on Tuesday with odds of winning at 51 percent on Tuesday before a bump up to 52 percent today. Polymarket gave Governor Greg Abbott an 83 percent chance of defeating Democrat Ginia Hinojosa on Wednesday while Kalshi has the Republican incumbent listed as an 87 percent favorite. The traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are giving Abbott the benefit of the doubt as the Republican on the ballot in a race that's been inside the margin of error in a majority of the polls in July.
The Split Ticket forecast on the data aggregation site 270toWin had the Texas Senate contest ranked as a toss up on Wednesday when it projected that Talarico has a 55 percent shot at victory. But the Split Ticket model has Talarico on top in a thriller that he wins by a grand total of 0.8 points. The forecast there has Democrats favored in 50 Senate races compared to 48 for the GOP with Texas and Alaska as the swing states in the toss up column.
Decision Desk HQ rated the Senate battle in Texas on Wednesday as a toss up that Talarico has a 52 percent chance to win after listing him at 51 percent on Tuesday. The DDHQ Votes forecast sees the GOP hanging on to the Senate majority - however - with a 56 percent chance of protecting it successsfully this fall.
DDHQ Votes had Talarico leading Paxton 45 percent to 35 percent on Wednesday in a general ballot test. DDHQ in contrast had Governor Greg Abbott with a 45-35 advantage over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in a general ballot test of the second most watched contest on the Texas ballot this year.
Paxton and Talarico both had 50 percent chances of winning in November based on the polling aggregation site projections at FiftyPlus One - the only toss up projection for the Senate race in Texas that didn't have Talarico with slightly better odds.
Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin on Tuesday gave Talarico a 63 percent chance of taking the Texas seat - the second most optimistic projection for the Texas Democrat up to now only 82 days before the midterm vote.
Capitol Inside ventured out on a limb alone this past weekend with the shift of the Texas Senate battle from toss up to leans Democrat in the rankings here for the general election on November 3. It was the second time this summer for such a move. We haven't attempted at this point to estimate Talarico chances of winning in terms of percentages. But stay tuned - that could be coming.
more to come ...
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