Talarico Up 4 in Senate Race in AARP Poll
as Paxton Expects Post-Convention Surge
Texas General Election Polls
Capitol Inside
September 10, 2026
A bipartisan AARP survey showed Democrat James Talarico leading the U.S. Senate race in Texas by 4 points on Thursday in line with a trend that Republican Ken Paxton's camp expects to end with polling that shows the attorney general on top as a product of the GOP's midterm convention in Dallas this week.
Conducted by the GOP firm FabrizioWard in a partnership with the pro-Democrat Impact Research, the AARP poll found Talarico with 48 percent support to 44 percent for Paxton, marking the 11th time that Democrat has been in front in the last 12 surveys that were taken on the Texas Senate contest since the start of July.
Tony Fabrizio, whose company AARP commissioned for the survey, has been a top pollster for President Donald Trump.
Governor Greg Abbott was ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 3 points in the poll for AARP with support from 49 percent. Abbott and Hinojosa were dead even in a Univision/YouGov poll that was released this week. The American Association for Retired Persons survey found Abbott and Paxton with leads of 13 points and 21 points respectively among voters who are 50 and older.
But the AARP poll found Talarico with a 21-point advantage among swing voters who are 50 years old or more at the same time the Republican governor led Hinojosa by 31 points among voters in that particular group.
Talarico led by 22 points among the Texas voters under 50 in the AARP survey, The Democratic Senate hopeful was 30 points ahead with Hispanic voters in the Fabrizio/Impact survey for AARP that showed Talarico up by 57 points among Blacks. Paxton in contrast had an 18-point lead among white voters in the poll.
Nine percent of the GOP voters in the AARP poll backed Talarico for U.S. Senate compared to 2 percent of the Democratic participants who favored Paxton. The difference in the candidates' support from across the aisle could be the deciding factor in a race as close as the Texas Senate competition has been up to now.
Talarico has led the Texas AG by average of 3.8 points in five polls that were conducted on the Senate fight since Paxton was up by 1 point in an Emerson College survey one month ago. Paxton caught up with the Democrat and had a razor-thin lead in a handful of polls in June after knocking longtime incumbent John Cornyn out in a primary runoff election in the final week of May.
But the attorney general slipped behind Talarico after an ill-advised trip to Europe for the Fourth of July with a female friend. Paxton has shown no signs of worry, however, based on the apparent belief that the battle with Talarico will be a different ballgame as a consequence of the rally that the Republican National Committee is staging at the American Airlines Center for President Donald Trump and candidates in close races in the fall.
Paxton's team is privately saying they expect his support to spike in the polling in response to Trump's vocal support for him in Dallas and plans to spend additional time in the Lone Star State between now and general election November 3.
"I'll be coming back to Texas because we have to elect Ken Paxton," Trump said. "And if I have to - I'll come back twice or three times."
Paxton has expressed no concerns on the potential wages of a campaign that plans to ride a president whose been more unpopular throughout the second year of his second tem than Joe Biden ever was in four years as the president in between Trump stints.
Trump has given Paxton $10 million - an amount that's peanuts compared to the record sums of campaign cash that Talarico has raised. But Trump's approval ratings have been stuck at rock bottom during most of 2026 for reasons that could rub off on Paxton and other Republicans who've tied themselves to him inextricably in the midst of the worst national climate for the GOP in three decades as the controlling party in Texas.
Trump called Paxton the greatest attorney general in history several different times during a keynote speech that spanned most of two hours on Wednesday night. But Trump gave voters reasons to not like the Texas Senate nominee with insulting remarks about his appearance and speaking abilities.
more to come ...
| Texas Congressional General Election Forecasts 2026 - Updated September 10 |
|
| FORECAST |
CD 15 |
CD 35 |
CD 34 |
CD 23 |
CD 28 |
CD 9 |
CD 32 |
CD 24 |
| Split Ticket |
R 57% |
D 54% |
D 78% |
R 77% |
D 94% |
R 95% |
R 94% |
R 96% |
| RacetotheWH |
R 77% |
R 65% |
D 58% |
D 50% |
D 84% |
R 93% |
R 93% |
R 93% |
| DDHQ |
R 65% |
R 66% |
D 64% |
R 80% |
D 84% |
R 92% |
R 87% |
R 88% |
| FiftyPlus One |
R 74% |
R 63% |
D 60% |
R 83% |
D 77% |
R 98% |
R 95% |
R 96% |
| Cook Report |
Leans R |
Likely R |
Toss Up |
Likely R |
Leans D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| UVA-Sabato |
Toss Up |
Leans R |
Toss Up |
Likely R |
Leans D |
Safe R |
Safe R |
Safe R |
| Capitol Inside |
Leans D |
Toss Up |
Leans D |
Leans R |
Likely D |
Likely R |
Likely R |
Likely R |
|
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