 |
| |
14-Point Swing |
2027 Dem-GOP |
28-Point Swing |
2027 Dem-GOP |
| Statewide |
Dem Sweep |
Dem 100% |
Dem Sweep |
Dem 100% |
| U.S. House |
Break Even |
13-25 |
Dem +21 |
34-4 |
| Texas House |
Dem +15 |
77-73 |
Dem +38 |
100-50 |
| Texas Senate |
Break Even |
11-19 |
Dem +8 |
19-12 |
|
Democrats Would Rule Texas if SD 9 Vote
Was Omen for How GOP Performs in Fall
Capitol Inside
February 4, 2026
The legendary blue wave of 2018 could seem more like a leaky faucet in hindsight if the special Texas Senate election that Democrat Taylor Rehmet won in a district that's been red since the early 1980s proves to be a reliable gauge of what to expect up and down the ballot in fall of 2026.
Democrat would pick up 21 seats in the Texas congressional delegation and successfully defend all of those they have now if the Republicans performed as badly in November in federal races than the candidate who entered the special Senate District 9 race as a runaway favorite and lost by 14 points in the runoff.
The GOP would kiss the Texas House majority goodbye if all of the contests on the general election ballot in November ended in a swing of 31 points or more in favor of Democratic foes like the overtime vote in the special Tarrant County state Senate race. The Democrats would flip 38 seats in the Texas Legislature's lower chamber if the GOP nominees do as bad or worse than Leigh Wambsganss did as Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick's handpicked candidate for the current majority party.
The Texas Senate would have a new presiding officer and eight more Democratic members if the special SD 9 vote was a foreshadowing for the fall and Republicans fare as terribly as the candidate they rallied behind did in district that's been more of a reflection of the state politically than any other in the east wing in Austin. Democrats would pick up eight Senate seats if every district on the fall ballot experienced a 31-point swing in 2026.
The Democrats - not the Republicans - would be the party with a monopoly on statewide offices if the GOP's candidates in November as Wambsganss turned out to be in SD 9. Austin State Rep. Gina Hinojosa would be the new governor while Texas would be sending Jasmine Crockett or James Talarico to the U.S. Senate if Republicans put up the same dismal numbers in statewide races this year as they did in SD 9.
U.S. Senator John Cornyn would be the toast of a retirement party while Governor Greg Abbott, Patrick and the other Republicans in statewide contests this fall would head for the exits as well if the general election results here mirror those in the special runoff election in the Tarrant district that had voted slightly more Republican than the electorate statewide during the era of GOP rule.
The Republicans have been grasping for excuses and answers on how they could have been wrong about their odds in SD 9 where the governor all but guaranteed that Wambsganss would win as a result of a superior voter turnout operation. They've been staggering in alternating states of shock and denial on the outcome of the special Senate vote in a district that President Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024.
Wambsganss attributed the stunning loss on a listless and uninformed base of GOP voters who stayed home because they failed to comprehend the nature of the stakes in SD 9. Patrick echoed the same basic sentiment.
"Low turnout special elections are always unpredictable," Patrick said in a post-mortem analysis of the SD 9 runoff vote on X. "The results from SD 9 are a wake-up call for Republicans across Texas. Our voters cannot take anything for granted. I know the energy and strength the Republican grassroots in Texas possess. We will come out fighting with a new resolve, and we will take this seat back in November. We will keep Texas red."
Trump appeared to be too embarrassed by the results to discuss them with reporters when they asked him about the runoff vote on the day after Rehmet's remarkable upset victory. The president, who endorsed Wambsganss in gushing terms twice in a 36-hour span before the vote, insisted that he hadn't been involved in the SD 9 competition and didn't know how it had ended the night before.
U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions of Waco seized on a theory that was born at the Wambsganss election-night celebration - saying that Republicans lost the Senate seat as a consequence of the icy weather that made travel dangerous for a couple of days in the Fort Worth area during early voting. Sessions declined to articulate on how the frigid conditions could have affected GOP voters but not Democrats.
Only time will tell if Patrick's relatively dismissive nonchalance was justified. The lieutenant governor, who controls a PAC that spent over $750,000 on the Wambsganss campaign, has assured Texas Republicans that they will reclaim the seat in November. But that's what he said before the runoff election in SD 9.
But what if the special Tarrant Senate contest turned out to be the bellwether for the midterm vote in Trump's second term that political experts expected it to be when everyone on both sides believed Wambsganss would win? A dramatic shift in support among Hispanic voters away from the GOP in the special SD 9 battle could be a sign of a big-time trouble for the Republicans later this year.
The chart at the top of the page shows outcomes with swings of at least 31 points in every race on the Texas general election ballot in 2024. Trump won Texas by 13.68 points just over a year ago. So the chart also shows what the effect of 14-point swings in general election races and shifts of 28 points - which measure Trump's margin of victory in 2024 againt Rehmet's winning total in the SD 9 runoff election.
| 
