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DLCC Sets Sights on Texas House Gains
after Running Table with Midterm Targets
Capitol Inside
December 11, 2025
Republicans will be in danger of losing their majority in the west wing of the Texas Capitol in 2026 if Democrats fare as well or better in targeted state House races here as they did in other places during the past 11 months.
After flipping more than two dozen legislative districts in a handful of states in 2025 when the GOP failed to pick up a single seat, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee added the Texas House on Wednesday to the list of chambers that its targeting for significant gains in the general election next fall.
"Our data shows state Dems overperformed 2025 elections in targeted districts by an average of 4.5 points," the DLCC reported in a post on X. "If replicated next year, the 2026 elections would be the most significant Dem gains at this ballot level in 2 decades. We’re ready to make it happen."
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| GOP Incumbents vs. Challengers |
29 |
| DEM Incumbents vs. Challengers |
10 |
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| GOP Incumbents Unopposed |
43 |
| DEM Incumbents Unopposed |
41 |
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| Open Races GOP Districts |
13 |
| Open Races DEM Districts |
6 |
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The Texas House joined the state senates in Georgia and Pennsylvania, the Maine House and Senate and the unicameral legislature in Nebraska on the updated battleground gameplan for states where the DLCC sees prime opportunities to convert seats from red to blue. The national Democratic organization has high hopes of flipping the Arizona House and Senate and both chambers in New Hampshire as well. The DLCC plans to spend substantial sums in a quest to break GOP supermajorities in Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina and Ohio as well.
If the DLCC's forecast is on the mark, Texas Democrats would have a shot to replicate the success they had here in the 2018 midterm election during President Donald Trump's initial White House stint when they picked up a dozen seats in the state House, two in the state Senate and two in the delegation to Congress. Democrat Beto O'Rourke lost by less than 3 points to U.S. Senator Ted Cruz that year despite Trump's attempt to prop the incumbent up.
Democrats could take the Texas House back in the 2026 general election with a net gain of 14 seats in a chamber where the Republicans have an 88-62 advantage on the current roster. The Democrats would end Republican rule in the Texas Legislature's lower chamber if they won every race in districts where Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred last fall by 7 percentage points or less.
Based on a Capital Inside analysis of the 2024 election results in the White House and U.S. Senate contests here, Democrats would flip 10 state House seats in Texas in 2026 with victories in every district where Cruz beat Allred by 5 points or less. The Texas Democrats would record an 18-seat gain in the state House next fall if their nominees prevailed in every districts where Cruz failed to post a double-digit margin of victory in the fight with Allred last year.
The CI rankings of state and federal races in Texas in 2026 are based on the U.S. Senate results last year as a more credible gauge than the success that Trump enjoyed here at the polls in late 2024 when his popularity was at an all-time high. Governor Greg Abbott and the Republicans in Austin made a crucial mistake during the summer when they approved a congressional redistricting plan with the goal of flipping five seats based on Trump's performance at the top of the ticket last year. The GOP may be forced to settle for a gain in the U.S. House next year of two or three seats at best as a consequence of the botched assumption that Trump would just as strong a year from now as he was a year ago.
The Democrats' top targets on the House battlefield in Texas will be districts that are currently represented by GOP State Reps. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi, Angie Chen Button of Garland, John Lujan of San Antonio, Marc LaHood of San Antonio, Morgan Meyer of Dallas, Janie Lopez of San Benito, Mano DeAyala of Houston, Lacey Hull of Houston, Carolyn Harris Davila of Round Rock and Tony Tinderholt of Arlington.
Cruz beat Allred be fewer than 10 points in those 10 House districts. Allred defeated Cruz in the districts that Villalobos, Button and Lujan represent. Lujan and Tinderholt aren't seeking re-election to the House in 2026 - and that will give Democrats a better shot on paper in open races for the seats that the two are giving up.
LaHood, Lopez, Meyer, Hull and Harris Davila are all facing opposition in the March 3 primary election. State Rep. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass is the only Democrat who's on the ballot again next year in a House district where Cruz won in 2024.
more to come ...
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