Abbott Rural Allies Cheer Voting Bill
that Takes GOP Wrong Way in Texas

Capitol Inside
September 7, 2021

The picture told the story on Tuesday when Governor Greg Abbott posed with more than a half-dozen rural Republican lawmakers to celebrate the transformation of the GOP voting restrictions in Senate Bill 1 into state law at a ceremony in Tyler.

The photograph was worth a million words at least - with eight white men from small towns and the Legislature's only Black Republican in State Rep. James White - a resident of the unincorporated community of Hillister in deep East Texas. White was standing right behind Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, who was seated a table with Abbott and the House and Senate sponsors to witness Abbott's signing of SB 1. The positioning of White in the otherwise all white cast - whether by design or pure coincidence - gave the photo op a sparkle of irony in light of the reputation as a racist that Patrick has gained across his words and actions in recent months.

Having been tweeted by Abbott across the country this afternoon, the photo captured the essense of the Republicans' summer agenda more than all the text in the world could ever do. The second special session ended as an unprecedented rural power grab without a glimmer of apparent concern for the suburban Republicans who they could be sacrificing with a package of legislation that's being widely hailed on both sides of the aisle outside activist ranks as an attack on women and minorities in the state's largest cities and suburbs.

But the GOP lawmakers who have the most to lose in suburban swing districts went along eagerly without dissent on measures that could be poisonous for them in suburbia as the new heart of the Texas electoral battlefield as a consequence of explosive Hispanic growth, an influx of white liberals from other states and a growing number of independents who left the GOP after the Donald Trump election challenge, rally and riot.

Abbott and Patrick both plan to seek third terms in 2022 as the state's two most powerful leaders. House Speaker Dade Phelan will be on the same GOP primary ballot as Patrick and Abbott. Phelan could be the only one of the three who advances all the way to the general election as a candidate who won't running on a Republican statewide ticket that could be a burial ground as suburban for a radically conservative program that demonstrated a potential disconnect from their own state .

More than a dozen House Republicans will be walking into fire with campaigns for new terms in 2022 in suburban districts that Democratic President Joe Biden either won or lost to Trump by 4 percentage points or less. All of them backed the agenda that Abbott and Patrick crafted for rural Texas and the hard right. None appear to realize or to care about the potential stages that there setting for their own fall.

The GOP lawmakers in the graphic on the governor's Twitter post all represent heavily Republican districts in parts of the state where the populations have been stagnant or shrinking. The group includes State Senator Bryan Hughes - a Mineola Republican who chairs the State Affairs Committee - as the author of SB 1 - seated beside Abbott at the bill signing.

GOP State Rep. Andrew Murr of Junction was sitting on the other side of Hughes for the photo opportunity in his role as the House sponsor.

The cadre standing with White in the background included Republican State Reps. Matt Schaefer of Tyler, Cole Hefner of Mount Pleasant, Travis Clardy of Nacogdoches, Keith Bell of Forney and Charles "Doc" Anderson of Lorena, a suburb of Waco. None appear to be at risk of losing to Democrats in 2022.

None of the suburban House Republicans could may have done themselves irreversable harm with votes they cast for an election bill for which they appeared to have nothing to gain for those who don't buy into the fabricated claims of voter fraud that Trump had predicted months in advance. But all of the Republicans are making it harder to vote in the suburbs where all the growth in Texas has been in the last 10 years with the exception of border areas that have mushroomed.

Hispanics accounted for almost 50 percent of the growth in Texas in the past 10 years based on the 2020 Census count. Less than 5 percent of the growth here was attributed to whites. The demographic shifts are going to dull the blade that the Republicans have used with substantial success in the last two redistricting efforts in Texas. here be

It is unclear how rural Republicans think they can retain some of the power they deserve to lose based on the numbers if the GOP gives the state away to Democrats. Such a transition could be on the horizon with the Texas Republicans wild gamble on a summer agenda that defies logic beyond a last shot at instant gratification.

more to come ...