UT Poll Finds Dems Up in 5 Statewide Races
as Talarico and Goodwin Take Biggest Leads
Capitol Inside
October 14, 2026
A new poll by the University of Texas found Democrats leading five of the six statewide races that it tested with James Talarico and Vikki Goodwin with the largest advantages in fights for the U.S. Senate and lieutenant governor respectively in the midterm election 20 days from now.
The Texas Politics Project's latest survey showed Talarico up on Republican Ken Paxton by 3 points with 50 percent support while Goodwin led third-term Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick by the same amount with nods from 49 percent of 861 likely voters in the poll that was taken over 10 days that ended October 5.
Democrat Gina Hinojosa had a lead of one percentage point over Governor Greg Abbott in the new UT poll that found Democrat Nathan Johnson ahead of the GOP's Mayes Middleton by 1 point in the battle for Texas attorney general while Jon Rosenthal was up on Republican Bo French in the race for a seat on the Texas Railroad Commission.
Comptroller hopeful Don Huffines was the only Republican with the lead in a statewide in the latest UT survey that showed him with support from 47 percent compared to 46 percent for Democratic foe Sarah Eckhardt. Abbott's chief campaign consultant Dave Carney reacted to the poll with a terse review on X.
"In the field for ten days... what crap... you guys will print anything..," Carney said.
But the governor's advisor appeared to take the results of a Marist poll that also was released late Tuesday night more seriously. The Marist survey found Abbott in front of Hinojosa by 4 points among 1,196 likely voters less than a month after a Marist poll for NPR showed the Democrat up by 1.
"Really?," Carney said on X this morning. "Marist had the TX dem Gov. candidate +3 last time and now -4? I’m not great with the maths but that seems like a +7pt movement for the pro Texas team. This only works if folks get out and vote. Key to note: sitting on the couch taking a survey it not the same as voting."
The races for U.S. Senate and lieutenant governor were the only two contest in the survey where Libertarian candidates hadn't received a sufficient amount of support to elevate Democrats into the leads in the new UT survey. Anthony Cristo had support from 2 percent in the Texas Politics Project poll as the Libertarian in the race for Patrick's job while Ted Brown was favored by 1 percent in the U.S. Senate competition here.
Libertarian Arthur DiBianca fared the best among the third-party choices as the candidate in the race for railroad commissioner - scoring nods from 3 percent. Rosenthal led French by one point with 47 percent support in the UT poll.
Talarico led Paxton by 3 points in a University of Texas poll on the Texas Senate race in August when Abbott was ahead of Hinojosa by 5 points. While Talarico's advantage was the same in the latest UT survey, the October survey makes it appear like the Democrats in statewide races on the ticket below the Senate fight are riding his coattails in contests that had been all but ignored for months.
Talarico has been in first in 16 of 19 polls that have been taken on the Texas Senate contest in the past month. Talarico and Paxton were tied in the other three. The Democratic Senate contender led by Paxton by 2.4 points on average in the polls that were conducted on the race during that span of time - double the advantage that Abbott has had in 13 surveys on the governor's race that he led by only 1.4 points. Hinojosa had the lead in five of those.
more to come ...
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