|
Mealer Up on Cain by 8 Points as New Poll
Shows Unsure Leading Two Harris Races
Capitol Inside
February 16, 2026
Pasadena Republican Alex Mealer seized the favorite status from a conservative state representative in an open congressional race in the Houston area in a new poll that shows another Texas House member at risk of being forced into overtime in a re-election contest she'd appeared poised to win easily until now.
The University of Houston survey that was conducted online over the course of a week this month detected substantial uncertainty among likely GOP primary voters in the state's largest city with Unsure leading the packs in open races for the 38th Congressional District and Texas House District 126.
The Hobby School of Public Affairs poll appeared to be the first real sign of a potential anti-incumbent election year in the making based on the preference of voters in House District 138 where State Rep. Lacey Hull is seeking a new term and the 9th Congressional District where State Rep. Briscoe Cain appeared to have the edge up to now.
A fifth-term lawmaker from Deer Park, Cain trailed Mealer by 8 points in the UH poll that surveyed 400 likely GOP voters in CD 9, which is one of five congressional districts that GOP leaders and lawmakers in Austin redesigned last year to favor Republicans in an attempt to save the U.S. House majority. .
Mealer was favored by 36 percent of the voters in the Hobby School sample from CD 9. Cain received nods from 26 percent. Nineteen percent of the voters in CD 9 checked the box for Unsure while Dan Mims had 10 percent and former congressional member Steve Stockman and Dwayne Stovall had 4 percent apiece.
A whopping 50 percent of the likely GOP voters in the UH poll in CD 38 were unsure on who candidate would get their support in the upcoming primary election that gets under way on Tuesday with the start of early voting. Jon Bonck and Shelly deZevallos were the only actual candidates in CD 38 to crack double-digits in the UH survey with 22 percent and 10 percent support respectively.
CD 38 hopeful Michael Pratt was a close third with 8 percent while Larry Rubin and Carmen Maria Montiel were locked in fourth with 3 percent each. Five other Republicans in the CD 9 field had 4 percent support combined in the February survey for CD 38.
The surprising indecision this close to an election in the district on the northwest side of Harris County could be a function of the fact that the CD 38 race got a belated start after U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt decided to give up the seat that he'd been planning to seek again so he could run for the U.S. Senate instead.
The UH poll found Hull with 49 percent support in a re-election bid in HD 138 where she won initially in 2020. But challengers Josh Flynn and Natalie Blasingame were both still viable with 13 percent and 12 percent respectively in the survey of 300 likely GOP voters in HD 138 where Unsure was in second with 26 percent.
Flynn is the son of the late former Texas House Republican Dan Flynn. The younger Flynn challenged Hull in 2022 when she claimed 64 percent of the primary vote compared to 19 percent for Flynn and 16 percent for a third Republican in the running that year.
The Hobby School poll showed a possible runoff in store in the Republican primary in an open race for House District 126 - with former Harris County clerk Stan Stanart leading Kelly Peterson by 7 points with 31 percent support for round one. Peterson appeared to have a good shot at overtime with 24 percent while Polly Looper was a distant third with 9 percent. But 36 percent of the voters in the HD 126 sample were listed as unsure - a sign that the race is still up in the air with a high probability of a runoff in the spring.
The margin of error in the UH poll for the two state House races was 5.66 percent. The pollsters surveyed 800 likely CD 38 voters with an error margin of 3.46 percent.
| 
