Cornyn Leads Paxton by Six in New Poll
as O'Rourke and Crockett Top Dem Field
Capitol Inside
September 12, 2025
U.S. Senator John Cornyn leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by a half-dozen points in the GOP primary sweepstakes in the race that's crowning the Texas ticket in 2026 based on a new poll that shows former and current congressional members Beto O'Rourke and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading a potential field of Democrats in the contest.
The Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 843 registered voters found Cornyn with support from 32 percent compared to 26 percent for the state's top lawyer in the fight for the Republican nomination in the U.S. Senate race here next year. The survey that was conducted over the course of three days late last month marks the first time that the incumbent has been up on Paxton beyond the margin of error in polling on the federal competition.
Cornyn had been closing in on Paxton in recent weeks after trailing the challenger by double-digits for several months after the AG set his sights on the Senate seat. The prevailing sentiment in Austin has been that Paxton's split with his wife who's a state senator has been a drag on his campaign for higher office. Paxton's status as the primary favorite has evaporated even though he still may have a better than even chance to beat Cornyn at the polls in March.
The TPOR survey found O'Rourke with a 1-point advantage over Crockett with 27 percent support from the Democrats in the sample in a hypothetical grouping for the primary election in the U.S. Senate battle. Neither O'Rourke or Crockett have appeared to have their sights set on a U.S. Senate bid in 2026.
The two Democrats who've announced that they're running for Cornyn's seat next year - former congressional member Colin Allred and State Rep. James Talarico -
received support from 13 percent and 7 percent of the TPOR poll participants respectively. U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro had 4 percent.
Texas Public Opinion Research was conceived a year ago as a newcomer to the polling business in Texas. The company is run by Luke Warford and pollster Celinda Lake, a prominent pollster for Joe Biden's winning campaign for the presidency in 2020. Warford is a former Texas Railroad Commission candidate who worked as chief strategy officer for the state Democratic Party.
The TPOR poll in August found that Texas voters are split fairly evenly on President Donald Trump and Vice-President JD Vance. Trump was 1 point under water with a favorable rating from 47 percent of the voters in the survey compared to 48 percent who disapproved. Vance fared slightly better with favorables of 41 percent compared to 40 percent who turned thumbs down.
Despite the slim lead in the Democratic primary in the U.S. Senate race, O'Rourke scored favorable ratings from 30 percent of the voters in the TPOR sample while 43 percent disapproved. Paxton was 9 points under water with favorable and unfavorable marks of 25 percent and 34 percent respectively.
Forty-seven percent had a favorable view of Republican state legislators here compared to 40 percent who did not. Forty-five percent viewed Democratic state lawmakers here in an unfavorable light while 40 percent rated them favorably.
more to come ...
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