Governor Scoffs at Texas Win for the Dems
Despite Trump Hispanic Popularity Plunge
Capitol Inside
February 23, 2026
Texas Republicans could be on the verge of fumbling away the support they reaped in 2024 among Hispanics in the wake of a poll that CNN released on Monday with President Donald Trump's popularity at an all-time low and his approval marks with the Latino electorate and independent voters substantially worse.
With five days left for early voting in the Texas primary election, the cable network survey was the GOP's latest wake up call in a state where the Democratic turnout was 24 pecent higher than the Republicans' in the first week for casting ballots in round one in 2026.
According to the analytics site Vote Hub, the Democratic primary in Texas recorded 544,894 in the opening week for voting early compared to 440,996 for the GOP. Democratic turnout was up 239 percent over 2022 when Governor Greg Abbott and most of the other statewide officials were on the ballot last. The number of ballots that were cast in the Republican primary here last week represented an increase of 114 percent over the count at the same point four years ago.
Democratic turnout was 351 percent higher in Dallas County than it had been in 2022 while vaulting 295 percent in Travis County, 244 percent in Harris County and 235 percent in Fort Bend County during week one for early votes. Turnout for the GOP was up 183 percent in Dallas, 171 percent in Travis, 133 percent in Harris and 138 percent in Fort Bend County on the edge of the Houston area.
The significant advantage that Democrats have enjoyed up to now in Texas early voting comes at a time when Abbott has been stumping the state on a get-out-the-vote tour that he's billed Let's Roll. The governor's stops have featured a supporting cast that includes Comptroller Kelly Hancock and Nate Sheets, a Republican who's trying to oust Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller at the polls next week. Abbott has endorsed a number of Republicans in open congressional and legislative races including some where the candidates he's backing appear to be the underdogs.
But Trump and Abbott have both shown no signs of being concerned or even aware of the scandal that's stolen the spotlight from the governor and Republican U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales of San Antonio fighting to survive amid revelations that he'd had an illicit relationship with a married aide on his staff before she burned herself to death last year. Primary challenger Brandon Herrera has demanded the Gonzales resign as the Congressional District 23 representative immediately as more details on the incumbent's alleged indiscretions emerged on social media in recent days.
Trump ended an endorsement for Gonzales in December with the same exact promise that he made to Texas voters about the governor when he endorsed him on Saturday for the second time in three months. "HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!" Trump wrote on Truth Social about Gonzales and the governor.
While Gonzales could still make a runoff as a result of name identification alone as a third-term congressional member, Democrats are salivating at the prospects for facing a far-right Republican in CD 23 in November or an incumbent who's badly wounded and potentially unelectable given the magnitude of the tragedy and the way he's responded to it.
Hispanic residents account for 56 percent of the voting age population in CD 23 where 33 percent are white. Any Texas congressional district with a Hispanic population majority could be a prime target for Democrats based on the latest polling that shows the president historically unpopular with that critical voting bloc or close to being.
Sixty-three percent of the likely Republican voters in the CNN survey disapproved of Trump's performance in his second term compared to 36 percent who had a positive opinion about the president. But Trump was even more unpopular with Hispanics in particular - with 22 percent approving and 77 percent turning thumbs down on him. Trump's approval ratings among Latino voters here were almost as bad as they were with Blacks at a 79 percent disapproval rate.
The CNN survey found 73 percent of the independent voters rate the president unfavorably compared to 26 percent who approved. Eighteen percent of the GOP voters in the cable network poll disapproved of Trump compared to 95 percent of the Democrats in the sample.
The Capitol Inside crystal ball for the 2026 general election in Texas sees the poll as the most glaring sign yet on the potential for a blue wave in November here and other swing states. While the nation's political climate has never been harder to predict, the Republicans appear to be on track for their worst showing in a Texas general election since 2018 if they don't fare even worse based on the rate they've been going and the lack of answers on how to turn the tide after tying themselves inextricably to the president.
While Republicans like U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick are warning GOP voters on the dangers of taking the upcoming election for granted, Abbott isn't worried.
"If I had a dollar for every time someone talked about turning Texas blue," Abbott said during the weekend, "I could straight-up buy Fox News!
"There's ZERO chance Democrats win here," the governor added in a post on X. "Texas remains the last common-sense stronghold in a country drowning in woke nonsense. This November, voters are choosing COMMON SENSE over chaos!"
But Abbott made the same claim before a special Texas Senate election runoff that Democrat Taylor Rehmet won on January 31 in a Tarrant County district that Trump won by 17 points in 2024. Democrats won a special state House election in Louisiana a week later in a district where the swing in the Democratic candidate's favor was even bigger than it had in been in the Texas Senate runoff.
more to come ...
| 
