Texas House candidates Michelle Evans, Valoree Swanson, Angelia Orr, Caroline Harris, Carrie Isaac, Terri Leo-Wilson, Candy Noble and Geanie Morrison at state GOP convention in Houston in June 2022. Terri Leo-Wilson Facebook photo

Abortion Ruling Could Put Dozen
Texas House Races in Play in Fall

Capitol Inside
June 27, 2022

The U.S. Supreme Court has given Democrats a desperately-needed momentum infusion on the Texas electoral battlefield with a decision last week that stripped women of the right to control their own bodies by overturing the long-standing case that originated in the Lone Star State called Roe v. Wade.

With national polls showing Democrats to be immediate beneficiaries of the high court degree, the Texas minority party's nominees could get the biggest boosts in statewide races and campaigns for the state House with a realistic chance to pick up seats this fall in districts that could be more competitive than expected up to now.

Governor Greg Abbott already had alienated a significant number of women in suburbia during the first year or two of the COVID-19 pandemic with court fights to ban mask and vaccine mandates in public schools around the state. The gun policies that Abbott and GOP lawmakers in Texas approved in recent years could come back to haunt the party more than they'd anticipated as a consequence of a mass school shooting in Uvalde, a fumbled police response, embarrassing political behavior and attempted cover-ups in its wake.

Parents in Texas are worried about the prospect of sending kids to school in two months amid the fallout from the massacre at Robb Elementary where a former student killed 19 children and two teachers with an AK-15 assault rifle that he bought the week before on his 18th birthday. Window dressing from separate but related legislative committee investigations will do little or nothing to curb a potential exodus of suburban moderates from a GOP where the middle has been all but invisible in Texas in the past two years.

Democrats at the state and national level have been in epic disarray and appear incapable of capitalizing on the backlash for which Republicans are bracing in the aftermath of the dismantling of Roe v. Wade. But Democrats could be in position to get some juice from the abortion ruling nonetheless with the possibility of gains in a half-dozen suburban state House districts where Donald Trump received less than 52 percent of the vote in his losing re-election race in 2020. Trump fell below 55 percent in 14 Texas House districts that the GOP is defending in the face of general election opposition from Democrats.

GOP leaders and lawmakers converted House District 92 into a Democratic seat in Tarrant County as a way to fortify the remaining Republican seats there with friendly voters. Euless Democrat Salman Bhojani - a former city council member - is a strong favorite in an open HD 92 race with Arlington realtor Joe Livingston as a GOP foe in a district where President Joe Biden scored 61 percent of the 2020 vote.

The Republicans created a Democrat-leaning district in Collin County where the GOP thinks it has a chance to win in November with Jamee Jolly of Plano as the nominee. But Biden garnered almost 55 percent in House District 70 where Dallas Democrat Mihaela Plesa has the inside lane as a result this fall.

The GOP has its sights on an open race in House District 37 as the party's top target on a playing field where the competition will be historically low as a consequence of an incumbent-protection redistricting plan in 2021. Biden carried HD 37 with less than 51 percent of the vote - and Republicans like their chances there now with San Benito school board member Janie Lopez as the nominee in a fight with Democrat Luis Villarreal Jr. of Mission in a race that could be the GOP's most realistic shot at a flip in November.

The House District 118 race could be up for grabs as well in the San Antonio area with Democrat Frank Ramirez seeking payback in a rematch with GOP State Rep. John Lujan after an initial encounter in a special election in late 2021. Biden claimed less than 51 percent in HD 118 in 2020 before Lujan defeated Ramirez with almost 51 percent the following year.

Republicans are confident that Kronda Thimesch of Lewisville will wrestle House District 65 into the GOP column in a district where Trump reaped 53 percent in 2020. GOP State Reps. Jeff Leach of Allen and Matt Shaheen of Plano are attempting to stave off Democrats in districts that Trump carried with 54 percent and 53 percent respectively.

Republicans Frederck Frazier of McKinney and Ben Bumgarner of Flower Mound are running in House districts that Trump carried with 53 percent and 52 percent respectively. Frazier was indicted late last week on felony charges of impersonating a public official in connection with a feud with a primary rival who he defeated in a runoff May 24.

GOP State Reps. Lacey Hull of Houston and Steve Allison of San Antonio are facing Democrats in districts where Trump scored 52 percent and 51 percent respectively. Round Rock Republican Caroline Harris is competing in an open race in House District 52 where Trump won with only 51 percent.

The most vulnerable Republican seats on paper are in Dallas County where State Reps. Angie Chen Button of Garland and Morgan Meyer of Dallas are fighting to defend seats in districts where Trump beat Biden by less than 1 percentage point. GOP nominee Mano DeAyala is running in an open race in House District 133 where Trump won 50.3 percent of the vote in 2020.

more to come ...