Five Texas House Seats Moved More
in Reach for Dems in Ratings for Fall

Texas General Election Rankings

Capitol Inside
April 14, 2026

Capitol Inside shifted a handful of state House races in favor of the Democrats on Tuesday as the GOP's chances for keeping Texas red appeared to be at the lowest point in the era of Republican rule as a direct result of President Donald Trump's historic unpopularity and apparent lack of interest in changing course to save a party that he no longer needs. .

The CI crystal ball rankings for the 2026 general election have two seats that the GOP currently controls rated as Likely Dem including a contest on the coast where rookie State Rep. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi is dueling Democrat Stephanie Saenz in House District 34. The House District 118 race that has Republican Jorge Borrego trying to defend the seat for the GOP in a fight with Democrat Kristian Carranza is listed as Likely Dem as well. The HD 118 and HD 34 seats had both been rated Leans Dem before the move left today.

The House District 37 race that features State Rep. Janie Lopez of San Benito in a re-election bid has been shuffled from the Toss Up category of Leans Dem - a move fueled considerably by Trump's plunging approval scores among Hispanic voters who backed him with record-setting numbers in 2024. Lopez will face the winner of a Democratic primary runoff with Esmeralda Cantu-Castle and Oziel Ochoa Jr. dueling for the nomination in HD 37.

The president's support with the critical Latino electorate could hit a new rock bottom in the wake of the fight he picked with Pope Leo XIV over the war in Iran and an image that he post of himself as a modern-day Jesus figure with supernatural powers. Trump deleted the AI picture from his Truth Social page after it had gone viral for most of a 24-hour period.

The three Republican House seats in races that Democrats are favored to win based on the ratings here are based in districts that are heavily Hispanic. Hispanics accounted for 80 percent of the voting age population in House District 37 in the Rio Grande Valley. Sixty-nine percent of the residents who are old enough to vote in HD 34 are Hispanic compared to 60 percent in HD 118 in the Alamo City. Latino voters have turned against Trump amid growing discontent with economic and trade policies that revolve on tariffs that have contributed substantially to inflation that's worse now than it had been on Democrat Joe Biden's watch as president.

Trump's war against Iran has sent oil prices soaring past the triple-digit mark - and American consumers are paying the highest prices at the gasoline pump that they've ever seen in the U.S. as a consequence. The 2026 elections are unfolding in the ominous shadow of the Epstein files - and Trump has drawn even more attention to them with the firing of Pam Bondi as the nation's attorney general in a Cabinet shakeup that cost Kristi Noem her job as the Department of Homeland Security commissioner. The list of reasons why Hispanics, independents and disgruntled Republicans are turning against Trump increasingly is seemingly endless with six months still to go before the midterm vote.

The potential for a blue wave that the most destructive ever appears to be higher now than it's ever been this far out from a general election in the U.S. But Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has been the only major Texas leader who appears to recognize the threat - and he has only warned that the GOP's state House majority could be in peril without saying the same about the party's statewide slate or the five-seat gain it predicted on a new congressional map.

To take the chamber back, Democrats would have to flip 14 House districts while successfully protecting all of the 62 they hold now. But gerrymandering by the Republicans at the Texas Capitol in 2021 left Democrats have fewer opportunities for partisan conversions than they did when they picked up 12 seats on the strength of a wave in 2018.

In addition to the three House seats would flip based on the projections here, Capitol Inside has five more races in districts that are red on the Toss Up list with State Reps. Marc LaHood of San Antonio, Angie Chen Button of Garland, Morgan Meyer of Dallas, Mano DeAyala of Houston and Caroline Harris Davila of Round Rock on the defensive in the general election.

The race in House District 52 had been Leans GOP before its shift today into the Toss Up category. race. The Democrat who's the most vulnerable this fall on paper - State Rep. Eddie Morales of Eagle Pass - appears to be safe in a House District 74 fight that's been downgraded to Likely Dem after being ranked Leans Dem until now. Morales is the only incumbent Democrat who's seeking a new term in a House district that Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz carried in 2024. Trump defeated Kamala Harris by nearly 15 points in Morales' border district where Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred by 5.

Democrats would wrestle eight House seats from the GOP if they won the three in districts where they're favored here and all of the contests in those that are ranked as coin flips at this point. But five more GOP seats are ranked as Lean Dem and could be in reach if a wave in a league with 2018 is in store for the general election. Two seats that are rated as Leans GOP - House District 96 and House District 97 - had been listed as Likely GOP before today.

Seats that Republican State Reps. Lacey Hull of Houston, Ben Bumgarner of Flower Mound and John McQueeney of Fort Worth are seeking again are listed as Leans GOP along with open contests in House District 94 where State Rep. Tony Tinderholt of Arlington isn't a candidate and HD 96 that State Rep. David Cook of Mansfield is giving up in favor of a state Senate bid.

more to come ...