Capitol Inside Shifts Handful of Contests
in Dems Favor in Texas Congress Bouts
Texas General Election Rankings
Capitol Inside
April 16, 2026
The Capitol Inside rankings for the Texas congressional battlefield in 2026 have been revised to reflect the growing possibility for a blue wave in the fall - with the shifting of six U.S. House races in the Democrats' advantage along with the U.S. Senate battle featuring juggernaut nominee James Talarico.
Talarico knocked the daily sniping between U.S. Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton to the back pages on Wednesday when he announced that he'd raised $27 million in the first three months of 2026. The state representative from Austin rounded up $10 million after the primary election in March when he defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who'd been a double-digit favorite in some polls in the final weeks before the vote. Talarico's first-quarter haul was the most that a candidate for the United States Senate in any state had ever reported in the same time span at the start of an election year.
But we'd moved the Senate seat from Leans GOP to the Toss Up list on the crystal ball forecast this week before Talarico revealed the historic fundraising stretch. All of the House districts with rankings that have changed here are based in districts that are heavily Hispanic at a time when President Donald Trump's support among the Latino electorate has collapsed based on recent polling. An Impact Research poll that was released this week found that one of every Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 regret that now.
Here are the revisions in the ratings here for 2026 on the map that Trump ordered GOP leaders and lawmakers to craft last summer with five new seats for the Republicans.
* Congressional District 23. The district that's anchored by San Antonio was moved from the Toss Up list to Leans Dem after being rated initially as Leans GOP. That's an unusually long leap for a Texas congressional contest on a map that was gerrymandered to prevent such developments. But Democrats have a chance to get the CD 23 seat on a silver platter in the wake of incumbent Republican Tony Gonzales' resignation this week in the midst of a lewd texting scandal and an affair with a staffer who burned herself to death.
The incumbent's fall from grace left Brandon Herrera - a gun rights advocate who's been a darling of the far right - as the GOP nominee by default. Herrera faces Democrat Katy Padila Stout this fall.
* Congressional District 15. The seat that U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz of McAllen is seeking again in South Texas was moved from Likely GOP to Leans GOP.
De La Cruz is facing Democrat Bobby Pulido in the general election. Pulido is a Tejano music star who's won multiple Grammy awards. He presents a nightmare threat as a challenger.
* Congressional District 34. One of the five seats that the Republicans in Austin redesigned for taking over, CD 34 was shifted from Toss Up to Leans Dem. Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez of Brownsville is on the ballot again. Gonzalez's fall foe, Republican Eric Flores, surged to a primary victory on the strength of an endorsement from Trump.
* Congressional District 35. This seat was bumped from Leans GOP to the Toss Up category in an open race that Republicans had been favored to win here up to now without an incumbent as an obstacle after U.S. Rep. Greg Casar's decision to run for a different seat this year. Casar switched districts after GOP state lawmakers recreated CD 35 as a target they thought they couldn't miss. The winner of a GOP runoff fight with State Rep. John Lujan and Carlos De La Cruz will square off in November with the Democrat who prevails in an overtime duel that pits Maureen Galindo against Johnny C. Garcia.
* Congressional District 28 The seat that veteran Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo expects to win again in was bounced from Leans Dem to Likely Dem.
Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina is taking aim at Cuellar as the Trump-certified GOP nominee in the general election in CD 28.
* Congressional District 9. Republicans Alex Mealer and State Rep. Briscoe Cain are squaring off in overtime in this Houston-area district that was converted on the new Texas map from a Democratic stronghold to a seat that we have ranked as Leans GOP after an initial rating as Likely GOP. Leticia Gutierrez claimed the Democratic nomination in CD 9 with almost 54 percent of the March vote in a field of six. CD 9 was moved from Likely R to Leans R due in large part to the fact that the voting age population there is nearly 60 percent Hispanic.
The Texas delegation to the U.S. House contained 25 Republicans and 13 Democrats before the unseemly departure of Gonzales in CD 23. Governor Greg Abbott must decide whether to call a special election for the vacant congressional seat on the same day as the May 26 runoff vote here or delay it until the same day as the general election in the fall.
Based on the forecast here, which is ever-fluid at a time when politics has never been harder to predict, the Republicans would pick up CD 9 and CD 32 this fall while Democrats would cut the losses by flipping CD 23. The Democrats would hold two of the other five seats that Republicans reconstructed for themselves with victories by Cuellar and Gonzalez in CD 28 and 34.
The Republicans would post a net gain of two seats in the Texas competition for Congress of two seats under such as a scenario if they wrestled CD 35 from the Democrats. A Democratic victory in CD 35 would leave the ruling Texas party with a net gain of only one seat if the GOP flipped CD 9 and 32 and Democrats seized control of CD 23.
The best-case scenario for the GOP would be a gain of four seats on the new Texas map baring an unexpected upset in CD 28. But Democrats could have an outside chance to break even on the U.S. House battlefield in Texas with victories in CD 23, CD 15 and CD 35.
But the outcome of the congressional races in the Lone Star State could be irrelevant for the most part if Democrats win enough in other states to reclaim control of the U.S. House as they're favored to do in the eyes of the nation's leading political prognosticators and objective experts. A Talarico victory at the top of the Texas ticket could hand the Senate majority to Democrats as well.
Heads or tails?
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