GOP Seats in Congress and Texas House
Shuffled to Toss Up Amid Trump Poll Woes
Capitol Inside Rankings
Capitol Inside
April 21, 2026
Capitol Inside moved several more Texas races in the Democrats' direction as President Donald Trump's popularity marks hit an all-time low for a single day on Tuesday amid a growing sense of wartime instability with an on-again, off-again plan to resume the bombing in Iran after declaring America as the winner of the war there last week.
Trump's average approval ratings were lower or the same as they'd been in his second term in four separate polls that were released to the public today. The American Research Group got the parade of polling on the president under way with a survey that showed him with passing grades from a mere 32 percent of the likely voters in the sample compared to 64 percent who disapproved.
But Trump's worst showing overall on Tuesday came with the publication of an Associated Press/NORC poll that found the president with positive marks from 33 percent while 67 percent turned thumbs down on his performance in term number two. That put Trump 34 points underwater with the difference between his approval and disapproval ratings.
Trump fared slightly better in a Reuters/Ipsos poll with an approval score of 36 percent and disapproval mark of 62 percent. Thirty-five percent of the voters in a Strength in Numbers Poll gave Trump a positive rating compared to 61 percent who disapproved. The president emerged from the four polls with an average approval and disapproval scores of 34 percent and 61 percent respectively.
The crystal ball rankings for the 2026 general election here were revised again today with the shift of the Congressional District 15 seat in South Texas and Texas House District 138 in Houston from Leans GOP to the Toss Up list. Republican U.S. Monica De La Cruz is seeking re-election race in CD 15 while GOP State Rep. Lacey Hull attempts to defend the HD 138 seat at the polls this fall.
Several statewide offices that had been regarded as safe Republican competitive have emerged on the rankings for competitive Texas races for the first time in the 2026 election cycle. The races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, agriculture commissioner and railroad commissioner are all rated Leans GOP. The Texas Senate president's post that Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is seeking for a fourth time is the only statewide contest below the governor's race that isn't open or in danger of being so after a primary runoff in May.
Governor Greg Abbott's bid for a record fourth term had been added to the list in the Leans GOP category earlier this month. Abbott is dueling Democratic State Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin in the general election. Patrick will face the winner of a Democratic primary runoff that pits State Rep. Vikki Goodwin of Austin against labor leader Marcos Velez. The Texas RRC will be open as well if incumbent Republican Jim Wright loses to Bo French in a runoff next month.
All of the statewide races in Texas this year had been regarded as safe Republican until now. Republicans are still viewed here as the favorites in all of the statewide tilts with the exception of the U.S. Senate race that's ranked as a Toss Up with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee who's raised historic sums of campaign cash.
CD 15 had been ranked Likely GOP before its shifting to Leans GOP last week. But De La Cruz faces her toughest yet by far with Grammy-winning Tejano music star Bobby Pulido as the Democratic nominee there. Trump won CD 15 by 18 points in 2024 with record support from Hispanics in a district where they account for 78 percent of the voting age population. And the president's support among Latino voters has cratered along with the strong backing he had among independent voters en route to victory in 2024. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz defeated Colin Allred by 9 points in CD 15.
So CD 15 may still look red to debatable degrees on paper. But Democrats have flipped legislative seats around the country in 2025 and 2026 in districts where Trump had run as strong or stronger than he did in CD 15 in Texas in his last White House bid. Pulido is clearly the underdog in light of the district's partisan voting history. But he has an even chance from the vantage here.
Hull joined a handful of GOP colleagues in the coin flip column that features candidates with a 50-50 chance from the view here in the competition for the Texas Legislature's lower chamber in 2026. Districts that GOP State Reps. Denise Villalobos of Corpus Christi and John Lujan of San Antonio currently represent were shift to Likely Dem last week when the House District 52 race featuring Republican State Rep. Caroline Harris Davilla of Round Rock was moved from Leans GOP to Toss Up.
Trump won HD 138 where Hull is on the ballot again by less than 9 points in 2024. Cruz beat Allred there by less than 4 points that year. Trump beat Kamala Harris by only 8 points in 2024 in HD 52 when Cruz won there by less than 4 points.
An open Congressional District 35 fight was reclassified as a Toss Up last week after its initial rating of Leans GOP. CD 35 is one of five U.S. House seats that GOP leaders and lawmakers in Austin targeted for takeovers during a battle here over congressional redistricting last summer. Lujan is squaring off with Carlos De La Cruz in a primary runoff in CD 35. Lujan's overtime foe is Monica De La Cruz's brother.
more to come ...
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