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Skaters Reverse: Talarico Leads by 12
in Latest Poll as Senate Lead Seesaws
Capitol Inside
February 25, 2026
A major Democratic consulting firm threw the latest curve into the bookmaking on the Texas Senate race on Thursday in polling that found Democrat James Talarico up on Jasmine Crockett by a dozen points after an independent poll found her leading by the same amount 24 hours earlier.
The survey that Blueprint Polling conducted for Chism Strategies showed Attorney General Ken Paxton ahead of U.S. Senator John Cornyn by nearly 12 points as well just one day after the University of Texas
found the Republican frontrunners running even in a survey that had Crockett way out in front across the aisle.
The Texas poll for Chism Strategies - one of the leading political shops in the southern U.S. - showed Talarico with 52 percent support in a sample with 472 likely Democratic voters. Crockett was the choice for 40 percent while 6 percent of the Texas Democrats who were surveyed remained undecided on Tuesday's primary election's marquee race.
Crockett had 56 percent in the UT Texas Politics Project poll that was released on Wednesday with Talarico at 44 percent. But a third Democratic contender - Ahmad Hassan - is getting almost no support and the odds for a runoff featuring the party's on-again, off-again polling leaders in the Senate competition appear to be low as a consequence.
An overtime brawl for the Republicans appears to be a sure bet heading into the final weekend before the vote - and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt's hopes for a spot in a runoff appear dismal at best after receiving support from only 14 percent of 529 likely GOP voters in the poll for Chism Strategies. Hunt appeared to still be alive - albeit barely - in the UT survey that had him at 26 percent while Paxton and Cornyn were knotted at 36 percent apiece.
When asked on preferences for a runoff with the incumbent and the state AG, 48.5 percent of the GOP voters in the Blueprint poll backed Paxton compared to 36 percent for the senator who's had the job for nearly two dozen years.
Paxton was favored by 52.8 percent in a potential OT bout with Hunt compared to 29.3 percent for the Houston congressional member. But Hunt would have a better shot against Cornyn in a runoff - according to the poll - which showed the incumbent with 42.4 percent compared to 36.8 percent for the House member from the state's largest city.
The poll for Chism Strategies was in sync with previous surveys on the Republican primary battle for Texas attorney general with U.S. Rep. Chip Roy at 30 percent and State Senator Mayes Middleton not far behind at 26 percent. The GOP field's two other AG contenders - State Senator Joan Huffman and Aaron Reitz - appear destined to be eliminated in round one early next week.
State Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin appears on track for an outright win on Tuesday in the Democratic primary election for governor with 61 percent in the Blueprint Polling survey that found none of her intraparty rivals above single digits.
more to come ...
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