Governor Keeping Democratic Foe at Bay
in Polls with Statewide Sweep Shaping Up

Capitol Inside
September 27, 2022

One of the two latest Texas polls shows Governor Greg Abbott and the Republicans on the verge of breaking out the brooms again with a lead of more than 6 points on average on a statewide battlefield where there have been no signs of a Democratic surge in the making in the final six weeks before the general election. The other makes it look like the GOP's winning margin in Texas statewide contests could be slightly higher.

The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation poll found Abbott leading Democrat Beto O'Rourke by 7 points with support from 51 percent of likely voters who were surveyed from September 6 to September 15. Abbott had enjoyed advantages of 7 points on O'Rourke in four of six independent polls that were released in the past two months. The incumbent had an average lead of 7 points in the other two polls that were taken in the same span of time.

A survey that Emerson College conducted in Texas last week in a partnership with The Hill had Abbott up on O'Rourke by 8 points when it was made public on Tuesday. The Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely Texas voters showed Abbott with support from 50 percent compared to 42 percent for O'Rourke.

Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton led Democratic challengers Mike Collier and Rochelle Garza by 6 points and 5 points respectively in the THPF poll that several television stations in the largest Texas cities rolled out in unison on Sunday. Those were the two closest statewide races in the THPF survey that found Comptroller Glenn Hegar and State Senator Dawn Buckingham ahead of Democratic foes Janet Dudding and Jay Kleberg by 8 points each respectively.

The Emerson College/The Hill poll bumped the average Abbott lead over the former El Paso congressional member to 7.14 points in seven surveys that were taken on the gubernatorial competition in Texas in August and September. The Emerson College survey was the latest piece of evidence that makes it appear that O'Rourke has stalled after cutting several points off the deficit in the first two months of summer in the early wake of a U.S. Supreme Court decision that stripped women of the right to an abortion and a state ban that the ruling triggered.

Abbott appeared to be in potential danger as a consequence of the state's mishandling of the response at a mass school shooting in Uvalde on May 24. The governor suffered the lowest moment of a long political career when he falsely claimed at a news conference in Uvalde on the day after the massacre that "it could have been worse" at the school where 19 children and two teachers killed if not for predictable police heroics.

But Abbott managed to put the firestorm that his fumbling in Uvalde triggered and fueled behind with an epic attention-grabbing gimmick that he hatched with the busing migrants to New York City, Washington D.C. and Chicago and the war of words that the unprecedented maneuver ignited.

The race's first and only debate on Friday could be O'Rourke's last chance to regain lost momentum in hopes of a strong finish.

“Governor Abbott governs based on whatever stunt will get him on Fox News – but it’s clear that when it comes to taking questions from voters and mainstream journalists, he immediately goes into hiding,” Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa said Tuesday, “So though we wish there were more than just one debate – on a Friday night no less – we’re looking forward to watching Beto expose Governor Abbott’s extremism, and the reckless, incompetent failure his tenure as Governor has been.

"On Friday night, Texans will see a clear choice – Beto, who is here to fight for every Texan’s prosperity, freedom, and safety; or Greg Abbott, who continues to prioritize extreme policies, political theater, and his friends at the NRA,” the TDP chief added.

more to come ...

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

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