Texas Governor's Race Tied in New Poll
as Talarico Up by 5 as GOP Rally Begins
Capitol Inside
September 9, 2026
Governor Greg Abbott got a gut check at the outset of the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday when a new poll found that he'd lost the lead for the first time in a fight with Democrat Gina Hinojosa in a re-election race the incumbent began as a prohibitive favorite.
The N+ Univision/YouGov survey that was released as President Donald Trump's novel rally got under way showed Democrat James Talarico up on GOP foe Ken Paxton by 5 points in a race that could determine which of the two major parties controls the U.S. Senate in 2027.
Abbott was deadlocked with Hinojosa at 47 percent apiece in the Univision poll in the fight for Texas governor after leading her in 20 surveys that have been conducted on the contest since the primary election in March. But Hinojosa remained in striking distance during the past three months as the the third-term incumbent's advantage hovered between 1 point and 7 points in the polling in August.
Talarico received nods from 48 percent of the participants in the Univision survey that showed Paxton's support at 43 percent. Talarico had the lead in a close race in 10 of the 11 most recent polls on the Texas Senate race before today.
The Univision/YouGov survey of 1,000 registered voters from August 27 to September 4 detected sharp division and disharmony within the bloc of Hispanic voters who President Donald Trump carried when he beat Democrat Kamala Harris by 14 points in the Lone Star State in 2024. One of every three Hispanics who backed Trump in the last general election had significant doubts about that decision or told pollsters they regret casting votes for him.
Talarico led Paxton 19 points among Hispanics in the Univision poll with 56 percent from that critical bloc. Hinojosa had a 12-point advantage over Abbott among Latinos with support from 54 percent.
The Univision/YouGov survey's results are in line with the findings of other polls that show the Republicans were off the mark when they composed a new congressional map amid the assumption that Trump's success with Latino voters reflected a permanent realignment. Trump won 55 percent of the Hispanic vote in Texas in 2024 - a record for a Republican.
But Democrats in border areas said at the time that Trump's popularity there was an aberration that would fizzle when he wasn't on the ballot again this year.
Hinojosa led Abbott 57-39 among female voters in the Univision poll - an advantage of 18 points among Latinas - while holding a two-point advantage among Hispanic men.
more to come ...
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