Texas A&M Poll Shows Talarico Up By 3
with 3 Statewide Races Too Close to Call
Texas General Election Polls
Capitol Inside
June 9, 2026
Texas GOP Statewide Ticket's
Top Names Under Water in Poll
Governor Greg Abbott and other Republicans on the statewide ticket in November may be more unpopular than ever based on the findings in a Texas A&M University/Siena poll that made public on Tuesday.
The survey found Abbott rated unfavorably by 49 percent of 807 likely Texas voters compared to 45 percent who saw him in a favorable light. Abbott, as result, was four points underwater in the polling vernacular in the latest gauge of Texas voters for the midterm election in 2026.
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa was rated favorably by 32 percent of the voters in the survey compared to 18 percent who had unfavorable opinions. But 50 percent of the participants in the A&M poll didn't know about Hinojosa to take a side on her.
Forty-one percent of the voters in the sample gave Democratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico a favorable rating while 34 percent viewed him in an unfavorable light. But the GOP contender in the Senate fight - Ken Paxton - was 20 points underwater in terms of his own popularity with an unfavorable rating of 54 percent in the poll compared to 34 percent who gave him a favorable mark.
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Texas Democrat James Talarico held a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race in a poll that was released on Tuesday with the fight at the top of the ballot here and two other statewide contests that were characterized as too close to call.
The survey of 807 likely voters was conducted by ReconMR on June 1-4 in a partnership with Siena College and the Bush School of Government & Public Service at Texas A&M University. The poll found Talarico with 47 percent support compared to 44 percent for the Texas attorney general who claimed the GOP nomination when he unseated U.S. Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff election late last month.
Talarico's 3-point advantage in the Texas A&M poll was in line with his average lead in nine surveys that have been taken on the Senate battle here since the primary election in March. The Austin state representative was up on Paxton by 3 points in a Texas Public Opinion Research poll that was taken over two days immediately after the runoff that the AG won by 64 percent of the vote. But had his first lead since the primary election in a Quantus Insights survey in Texas last week.
The ReconMR/Siena/Texas A&M poll today showed Governor Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by 5 points with 49 percent support. The Republican who's seeking a record fourth term has led the Texas House Democrat from Austin by slightly less than 6 points on average in seven polls on the governor's competition here since the primary election.
But two other statewide races fell within the survey's 4-point margin of error - with Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick in front of Democrat Vikki Goodwin by 3 points while Mayes Middleton led Democratic opponent Nathan Johnson by 3 in the race to replace Paxton as the attorney general.
Patrick was favored by 48 percent of the participants in the Bush School survey while 45 percent gave Goodwin the nod. Middleton led Johnson 44 percent to 41 percent in the state lawyer race. The voters in the Texas A&M survey backed a generic Republican candidate 49 percent to 43 percent.
The fight between Paxton and Talarico is the most closely watched Senate contest in the nation in the 2026 midterms because it could swing the balance of power in the chamber to the Democrats. But a strong showing by Talarico at the top of the Democratic ticket could give the party's candidates a considerable boost in down-ballot contests that have the potential to be competitive and possibly close.
That could put the GOP's entire statewide slate in trouble in a state where Democrats haven't won at that level in 32 years. A blue wave in a league with the one here in 2018 appears to be a definite possibility thanks in large part to President Donald Trump's cratering approval rates and lack of interest in reversing them for the sake of the GOP.
But Abbott has insisted that Talarico has no chance whatsoever of a victory in November despite polling that's shown exactly the opposite for months.
more to come ....
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