|
POLL |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
PAXTON |
TALARICO |
LEADER |
|
4/17-20 |
1,018 LV |
41% |
46% |
Talarico +5 |
|
4/10-20 |
1,200 RV |
34% |
42% |
Talarico +8 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
POLL |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
CORNYN |
TALARICO |
LEADER |
|
4/17-20 |
1,018 LV |
41% |
44% |
Talarico +3 |
|
4/17-20 |
1,018 LV |
33% |
40% |
Talarico +7 |
Average |
|
|
|
|
Talarico +5.8 |
|
Talarico Has Bigger Leads in UT Survey
Than He Had in Dem Poll the Day Before
Capitol Inside
April 29, 2026
A poll that the University of Texas made public on Wednesday found Democrat James Talarico with his biggest lead yet over both of his potential GOP foes in the U.S. Senate fight here just one day after Republicans sought to dismiss a Democratic firm's survey that showed him ahead by smaller margins.
The Texas Politics Project survey of 1,200 registered voters had Talarico up on U.S. Senator John Cornyn by 7 points - more than double the advantage that the Texas House member from Austin had in a Texas Public Opinion Research poll that was released on Tuesday.
The UT poll found Talarico leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by 8 points with support from 42 percent of the respondents. Talarico led the incumbent 42 percent to 34 percent in the poll that the state's flagship university conducted for a 10-day span that ended April 20.
Governor Greg Abbott led Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa by 6 points in the UT survey with support from 44 percent in his bid for a fourth term. Abbott was in front of Hinojosa by five points in the TPOR survey on Tuesday.
The U.S. Senate battle in Texas could make or break the GOP's hopes for keeping the majority in the upper house of Congress. Republicans currently are a 52 percent favorite to retain control of the Senate on the prediction market site Kalshi. Democrats - in contrast - have an 86 percent chance to reclaim the U.S. House according to the odds on Wednesday on Kalshi. But those are based on a GOP win in Texas in the fall when Talarico will square off with the winner of a GOP primary runoff on May 26.
Abbott has promised Texans there is no way that Talarico will win in November. A Talarico victory would wreck the Republican governor's plan to turn Harris County red in 2026. Conservatives expressed shock and disbelief on social media on Tuesday after the TPOR poll pegged the Democratic nominee as the leader in the Senate race in Texas where Democrats haven't won statewide since 1994.
The Texas Senate race is rated as likely Republican or leans GOP in the projections by the most prominent national bookmakers for political campaigns. Capitol Inside shifted the Senate seat to the toss up category on the ratings here for the general election this year. The early polling suggests that the Senate fight in Texas is a coin flip like we've called it here.
Cornyn had repeatedly warned that Talarico will emerge victorious in the fall if Paxton wins the runoff. But the UT poll - like the survey on the race the day before - found the difference between the Republicans to be minimal at best. Talarico led Paxton by 5 points in the TPOR poll that showed him up on Cornyn by 3.
Talarico led Paxton by 16 points among Hispanics in the University of Texas TPP poll. The Democrat had a 55-point advantage among Black voters in the UT sample while the AG was favored by 42 percent of the white voters who participated compared to 37 percent who supported Talarico.
The UT poll found Talarico with leads between 10 and 20 points among voters who are under 65 years of age in a possible pairing with Paxton in the general election. There was almost no difference between the Democrats' support in a potential duel with Cornyn in breakdowns of the poll by race, age, gender and other variables as he received when sized up against the attorney general. .
Cornyn and Paxton both led Talarico among voters who are white, those who over 65, those who have no college education and those who reside in rural areas. But male voters were split almost down the middle on Talarico and the GOP's two surviving contenders. Talarico led Paxton among male voters 41 percent to 40 percent while trailing Cornyn by a single point in that particular category.
more to come ...
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