Talarico Leads Both Republicans in Poll
that Finds Abbott Up by 5 on Democrat
Capitol Inside
April 28, 2026
The latest poll on the U.S. Senate competition in Texas shows Democrat James Talarico leading both of the Republicans who are still in the race while Governor Greg Abbott has the edge on challenger Gina Hinojosa in a fight for a prize that's still in reach for the Democrats.
Conducted for Texas Public Opinion Research, a relatively new firm that's run by a former state Democratic Party officer, the poll that was released on Tuesday found the Abbott with a 5-point lead on the Democratic state representative from Austin with support from 48 percent of the likely voters who participated.
But Talarico had the advantage in the race at the top of the Texas ticket in 2026 - with a lead of 5 points over Attorney General Ken Paxton - the consensus favorite in overtime for the GOP in the Senate contest here. Talarico, a Texas House member from the Capitol City as well, was up on incumbent John Cornyn by 3 points - putting that particular pairing within the survey's margin of error of 3.3 percent.
While Republicans and Democrats both have runoffs under way in an open race for Texas attorney general, the TPOR survey of 1,018 likely general election voters found the Republicans ahead 45 percent to 39 percent in the state lawyer's contest.
State Senator Mayes Middleton of Galveston is dueling U.S. Rep. Chip Roy of Austin in the battle for the GOP nomination in the AG's race while State Senator Nathan Johnson appears to be the betting favorite over Galveston lawyer Joe Jaworski in the Democratic runoff for the job that Paxton is giving up.
The TPOR poll found Talarico in front of Cornyn by 32 points among Latino voters while the Democrat led Paxton by 27 points in the competition for the critical Hispanic vote. Talarico, who has ramped up the courting of Black voters in the past week or so, led Cornyn 69 percent to 13 percent among Blacks while holding an advantage over Paxton of 65 percent to 14 percent in that category.
Moderate voters in the TPOR poll that was taken April 17-20 favored Talarico over both of the Republicans by large margins in the Senate runoff. Talarico led Cornyn and Paxton by 43 points and 49 points respectively among moderates in the poll.
Talarico enjoyed a lead of 22 points over Cornyn among independent voters in the survey - and the Democrat was up on Paxton by 25 points in the competition for the support of independents in the Texas Senate race.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll that was taken by Slingshot Strategies earlier this month found Paxton leading Cornyn by 8 percentage points in the overtime fight for the nomination in the Senate race. A TPOR poll in the week after the March 3 primary election showed the AG up on Cornyn by 8.
The new TPOR poll found that 21 percent of the likely voters in the sample ranked affordability as the number issue for the fall with immigration as a distant second at 10 percent.
more to come ...
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