Crockett Seizes Early Lead over Talarico
in Poll on Dem Primary in US Senate Race

Capitol Inside
December 12, 2025

U.S. Jasmine Crockett led State Rep. James Talarico by eight percentage points in a poll that was released on Friday in an attempt to gauge the pair's early support for a Democratic primary showdown in the race for the U.S. Senate here in 2026.

The Texas Southern University survey found Crockett with support from 51 percent of 1,600 likely Democratic primary voters compared to 43 percent for Talarico. Six percent of the Democrats who were polled were not sure which of the two they might back in the primary election on March 3.

Less than one-third of 1 percent of the voters in the TSU poll indicated that they would vote for Ahmad Hassen, a Katy resident who listed his occupation as "law business grad" when he filed for the Senate competition in Texas late last month. Hassen's support probably would have to grow in the coming months before he has a sufficient amount to force a runoff between the second-term congressional member from Dallas and the Austin state lawmaker who are the frontrunners.

The Democratic primary victor will face the winner of a GOP primary election that appears destined for overtime with U.S. Senator John Cornyn fighting to stave off challenges from Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt as the recognizable names in a field with a total of eight Republicans. Hunt's own polling shows him with substantially more support than independent surveys on the Senate competition here.

Paxton held a double-digit lead over the incumbent in early polling on the GOP fight at the top of the Texas ticket next year. But Cornyn has gained steam and made the race close in the wake of revelations about Paxton personal woes that were punctuated by his wife's filing for divorce on "biblical grounds" in a reference to her spouse's alleged adultery.

Crockett and Talarcio are both gambling that Paxton will be the GOP nominee in the general election next fall when Democrats hope to snap a 28-year losing streak in statewide races in the Lone Star State. The prevailing sentiment inside the Austin beltway is that neither Talarico or Crockett would beat Cornyn if he emerges from the primary election or subsequent spring runoff as the GOP nominee again.

Crockett had an edge over Talarico in name identification in the TSU poll - with 94 percent of the Democratic voters who participated expressing an opinion on the federal legislator from Dallas while 79 percent weighed in on Talarico. Crockett received an 85 percent favorable rating in the survey when 9 percent of the voters turned thumbs down. Talariico was viewed favorably by 77 percent with an unfavorable rating of only 2 percent.

Crockett was the overhwelming choice of Black voters - with 89 percent voicing plans to support her in the primary. A majority of the white and Hispanic voters in the TSU sample favored Talarico over Crockett. Talarico had a 53-40 percent edge with white voters while leading Crockett 51-41 with Latinos.

Fifty-seven percent of the women in the Texas Southern poll plan to back Crockett in the primary compared to 36 percent who expect to cast ballots for Talarico in round of the 2026 cycle. But Talarico led Crockett 52-42 among the men in the survey.

Fifty-eight percent of the Democratic voters in the TSU poll said they felt that Talarico has a better shot at winning votes from traditional GOP voters than Crockett.

The TSU poll was conducted over three days ending on Thursday. Crockett served one term in the Texas House before a promotion to Congress in 2023. Talarico has been a member of the Texas House since 2019. Eight Republicans are vying for the nomination in the fight for the seat that Cornyn won initially in 2002.

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