UH Poll Finds Texas Senate Runoff Close
as Middleton and Wright Leads Foes in OT
U.S. Senate Runoff Polls
Capitol Inside
May 5, 2026
A University of Houston poll that was released on Tuesday found Attorney General Ken Paxton up on incumbent John Cornyn by 3 percentage points in a GOP primary runoff for a U.S. Senate seat in a fight that's featured President Donald Trump on the fence despite an endorsement he'd promised to make two months ago.
The Hobby School of Public Affairs survey of 1,200 likely GOP runoff voters showed State Senator Mayes Milddleton leading U.S. Rep. Chip Roy by 9 points in an overtime duel in the race for the statewide post that Paxton is giving up as a candidate for the U.S. Senate instead in 2026.
Texas Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright was ahead of former Tarrant County GOP chairman Bo French by 7 points in a runoff for one of the three elective seats on the board for the state agency that regulates the oil and gas industries here.
The Hobby School poll found Governor Greg Abbott in fourth and last place in the popularity ratings for a group of four major Republican officerholders that included Vice-President JD Vance, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and Trump himself.
But it was close - with 81 percent of the likely Texas runoff voters having a favorable opinion of Vance, 77 percent feeling the same way about Trump while 76 percent rated the other U.S. solon from Texas favorably. The UH poll found that 75 percent of the GOP voters in the sample had a favorable impression of the Texas governor.
The poll make it appear that the GOP battle for the Texas Senate was closer than it had appeared to be in 10 previous surveys that had Paxton in front by almost 5 percentage points on average. The state AG led Cornyn by 16 points in a survey that the pollster for Democratic nominee James Talarico conducted a week after the primary election in March.
But the longtime incumbent was close to running neck-and-neck with the challenger in the University of Houston survey that had a margin of error of 2.83 percent.
Cornyn finished in first in the initial election with 42 percent of the vote in a field with eight contenders. Paxton was closed behind with 40.5 percent in round one. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt was a distant third with less than 14 percent of the March vote. Fifty-four percent of the voters who backed Hunt in the first round favored Paxton in the runoff compared to 35 percent who said they plan to vote for Cornyn in OT.
While 7 percent of the Republican voters in the UH poll were undecided on the U.S. Senate runoff, 37 percent had yet to make their choice in the Texas Railroad Commission runoff. Thirteen percent were undecided on the overtime fight in the race for attorney general.
more to come ...
|
GOP RUNOFF |
DATE |
SAMPLE |
CORNYN |
PAXTON |
LEADER |
|
4/28-5/1 |
1,200 LV |
45% |
48% |
Paxton +3 |
|
4/06-07 |
1,225 LV |
40% |
48% |
Paxton +8 |
|
4/06-09 |
800 LV |
44% |
43% |
Cornyn +1 |
|
4/11-14 |
1,143 LV |
44% |
43% |
Cornyn +1 |
|
3/19-23 |
600 LV |
42% |
47% |
Paxton +5 |
|
3/21-23 |
1,218 LV |
41% |
47% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/17-19 |
807 LV |
39% |
42% |
Paxton +3 |
|
3/12-17 |
900 LV |
37% |
53% |
Paxton +16 |
|
3/09-12 |
800 LV |
45% |
45% |
Even |
|
3/07-08 |
781 LV |
41% |
49% |
Paxton +8 |
|
3/05-06 |
565 LV |
42% |
45% |
Paxton +3 |
Average |
|
|
|
|
Paxton +4.7 |
|
| 
