O'Rourke Pulls Almost Even with Gov
in Poll with McConaughey Way Behind

Capitol Inside
November 1, 2021

Governor Greg Abbott and Democrat Beto O'Rourke are running neck-and-neck in a new poll on the potential field in the marquee race on the Texas ballot in 2022.

A collaboration between the Baker Institute at Rice University and the Texas Hispanics Policy Foundation, the survey found Matthew McConaughey to be a distant third as a potential independent candidate for governor in the general election a year from now.

The poll that was conducted during the second half of October showed Abbott with a one point lead on O'Rourke with 43 percent support among registered Texas voters when McConaughey isn't an option. Abbott is favored by 40 percent compared to 37 percent for O'Rourke when the Oscar-winning actor is listed as a contender. McConaughey - a Longview native who lives in Austin now - received support from a mere 9 percent of the registered voters in the survey.

McConaughey has been teasing Texans with the prospects for a dive into politics as a campaign for the state's top job as part of a book tour. He's never appeared to be truly serious about such a move. But the new poll gives the impression that he probably would have to run in the Democratic primary to have any chance for success. The Abbott and O'Rourke support in the survey falls 3 percent and 5 percent respectively in the new gauge of Texas voter preferences for 2022.

The Texas Hispanics Policy Foundation is led by former Texas House Republican Jason Villalba of Dallas. Dr. Mark Jones of the Baker school at Rice University serves as the THPF's chief information officer and analytics director. Jones is one of the most respected academic authorities on state politics in Texas. Jones' involvement in the survey gives it substantial credibility that will make it harder for Abbott and other Republicans to dismiss the findings as flawed.

The THPF found Abbott with 64 percent support in the primary among the most likely GOP voters here next year. Former Texas Republican Party leader Allen West is second at 13 percent with ex-state Senate member Don Huffines backed by only 5 percent of Republican primary voters here in the gubernatorial sweepstakes.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton would win the GOP nomination without the need for a runoff as well with 54 percent support in a bid for a third term in a field that featured Land Commissioner George P. Bush with a 18 percent, former Supreme Court judge Eva Guzman at 5 percent and State Rep. Matt Krause of Fort Worth favored by 1 percent of primary voters. But 22 percent were unsure who they would support in the AG's race in the primary election in March.

Sixty-one percent of the voters were undecided in a GOP primary fight for the job that Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller is seeking again in 2022. Miller was preferred by 34 percent - a troubling number for an incumbent who's nearing the end of a second term as the state farm chief.

But GOP State Rep. James White of Hillister was a distant second among the most likely primary voters in the agriculture commissioner's race with 3 percent. Carey Counsil - a business professor and rancher from Brenham - was close behind White at 2 percent. White is Black.

O'Rourke and McConaughey are the only potential contenders in the poll who haven't said whether they will actually run or not in 2022. But O'Rourke appears to be on the verge of diving into the battle.

more to come ...

 


 

 


 

 

 

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