Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton led U.S. Senator John Cornyn by almost 8 points on Wednesday in the first of many polls to come on the possible pairing of the top of the ticket in the Republican primary competition in the Lone Star State in 2026.
Fueled by a massive boost in name identification from an impeachment saga that backfired in epic fashion nearly two years ago, Paxton was favored by almost 42 percent of the GOP voters from Texas in a Victory Insights survey that found Cornyn with support from slightly less than 34 percent. Nearly 25 percent of the Texas Republicans who participated in the poll were undecided on the U.S. Senate fight here next year.
The New York City-based firm's senior pollster - Ben Galbraith - provided a synopsis of the potential showdown in the race for the Senate seat that Cornyn won initially in 2002 as the incumbent attorney general in Texas at the time.
"After more than two decades in the US Senate, many Republicans – especially those who strongly support President Donald Trump – have begun to question Cornyn’s voting record and beliefs, painting him as a moderate Republican entrenched in DC’s political establishment," Galbraith said in an analysis of the poll.
"Meanwhile, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a conservative firebrand and fierce ally to President Trump, has been openly flirting with the idea of challenging Cornyn in the Republican primary," the pollster added. "But Paxton has some weaknesses of his own – could he really put up a fight against an incumbent US Senator who has cruised through every primary election for decades? In short, yes."
But the polling may be a gauge of Cornyn's sagging popularity among self-styled MAGA Republicans who are loyal first and foremost to former and incoming President Donald Trump. The Victory Insights survey - as an example - found Cornyn trailing a generic candidate identified only as "someone else" by 4 percentage points.
Almost 55 percent of the MAGA Republicans in the sample gave Paxton the nod in the hypothetical primary clash with Cornyn. Less than 24 percent of the MAGA voters preferred the incumbent if he runs for re-election again next year with Paxton as the singular foe in the first primary vote or a subsequent runoff.
But Cornyn led Paxton by 35 points among "traditional Republicans" with 50 percent support from that ever-shrinking bloc of voters in Texas for the GOP. Cornyn was up by almost 40 points among Texas Republicans who characterized themselves as moderate.
The Victory Insights poll found Governor Greg Abbott with higher overall name Id than Trump himself in Texas. The poll showed Abbott with total name recognition at 99.7 percent compared to 97.6 percent for Trump. Paxton was a familiar name with 89.6 percent compared to 86.9 percent for Cornyn. The poll pegged Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick's name identification at 83.3 percent.
U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston had name recognition of only 35 percent as one of several Republicans who've been mentioned as a possible U.S. Senate contender in 2026.
Paxton in the meantime has been attempting to raise his stock with conservative primary voters with a four-city swing this week on behalf of State Rep. David Cook of Mansfield as the Texas House GOP Caucus nominee for speaker in the election on the floor on opening day of the 2025 regular session six days from now.
But Paxton's intervention as the better-known half of a duo that includes Texas GOP Chairman Abraham George hasn't appeared to put State Rep. Dustin Burrows' status as the favorite in the speaker's race in jeopardy as long as he has votes from most if not all of the Democrats in the election on Tuesday.
Paxton appears to be substantially stronger now on the right in the aftermath of an ill-fated impeachment that state House GOP leaders conceived and Senate Republicans ended with a vote to acquit the three-time elected AG.
