Trump Border Gains Could Be Mirage
with Low Latino Support in Texas Poll

Capitol Inside
November 8, 2021

Democrats can expect President Joe Biden to be baggage for the ticket in 2022 in Texas despite negative perceptions that voters here - especially those who are Latinos - have of Republican Donald Trump and Governor Greg Abbott based on a poll that was released on Monday.

The survey that the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted with Rice University's Baker Institute found that 43 percent of Texans hold Biden in a positive light compared to 55 percent who view him unfavorably. But Trump is unpopular in the Lone Star State as well with favorables of 47 percent and negative ratings by 51 percent of the voters in the poll of 1,402 Texas voters over a two week period in the second half of October.

Governor Greg Abbott received a thumbs up from 49 percent of the Texans in the TxHPF sample while 47 percent viewed him unfavorably. Beto O'Rourke - the most likely Democratic challenger in the 2022 gubernatorial election - was rated favorably by 44 percent of Texas voters compared to 45 percent who were not impressed.

“Looking at all Texans, President Biden is not popular in the state, but former President Trump does not fare much better,” Rice University's Mark Jones said as the director of research and analytics for the TxHPF. “Texans do not have overwhelmingly positive views of any current political figure. The president’s number will likely be a drag on Texas Democrats in 2022.”

The survey, however, appears to also raise the specter in between the lines and the numbers that the surprising inroads that Trump made with Hispanic voters in Texas last fall may have been an aberration or fluke. Trump beat Biden by almost 6 percentage points in the nation's second largest state in 2020 - thanks in part to significant gains in heavily Hispanic areas that he still lost along the Texas border with Mexico.

But Trump received a favorable rating from only 38 percent of the Latino voters in the TxHPF poll that found the ex-president unpopular with 57 percent of the Hispanics here. Fifty-two percent of Texas Hispanic voters saw Biden in a favorable light - in sharp contrast - compared to 44 percent who gave the current president negative marks.

Abbott was rated favorably by 43 percent of the Hispanics in the October survey while 50 percent had negative views of the incumbent governor who's seeking a third term next year. But 53 percent of Texas Latinos gave O'Rourke positive ratings while 35 percent had an unfavorable opinion of the former El Paso congressmen who almost knocked U.S. Senator Ted Cruz off in the race at the top of the ticket in 2018.

Abbott won 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in his first race for governor in 2014 before claiming an estimated 41 percent in a re-election race four years later against a Latina as the Democratic nominee.

Dallas attorney Jason Villalba - a former Texas House Republican who leads the TxHPF - said the poll highlights the ever-growing importance of the Hispanic vote in Texas.

“Hispanic Texans remain a pivotal voting group heading into the 2022 race for governor and other statewide offices,” Villalba said. “The Hispanic population in Texas may continue to lean Democratic, but no party should take this diverse group for granted. Hispanic Texans will need to be part of any winning coalition in Texas next year and beyond.”

The same pollsters found Abbott leading O'Rourke by 1 percentage point last week - a statistical tie based on the margin of error.

 


 

 


 

 

 

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