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Hinojosa Surges Within 3 Points of Abbott
in Governor Race Poll by Big Dem DC Shop
Capitol Inside
February 12, 2026
A major Democratic consulting firm found State Representative Gina Hinojosa of Austin in a statistical deadlock with Republican Governor Greg Abbott in a quest to reclaim the top political job in Texas for the Democrats in a poll whose overall findings were made public on Thursday.
The Washington D.C.-based GBAO revealed in a memo that the survey of 1,000 likely Texas voters showed Hinojosa trailing the incumbent by a mere 3 points with support from 43 percent in a hypothetical pairing for the general election in the gubernatorial sweepstakes in 2026. That put the Democratic lawmaker from the Capitol City inside the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error.
Abbott had a 7-point edge over Hinojosa in a University of Houston poll that was unveiled on Wednesday with 49 percent of the likely voters who were tested expressing plans to support the incumbent at the polls in November. Forty-two percent of the respondents in the Hobby School of Public Affairs survey favored the Democratic state representative in a possible fight between the two in the fall.
Abbott led Hinojosa by 8 points in a poll of Texas voters that Emerson College conducted in January with 50 percent support in a hypothetical showdown in the general election later this year. The UH poll found a potential fall duel featuring Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and Democratic State Rep. Vikki Goodwin in the Texas Senate president's contest to be closer with a 5-point lead for the incumbent.
Hinojosa had a commanding lead among Hispanics and young voters in the GBAO survey that was taken here from January 26 to February 3. Hinojosa was up on the Republican governor by two dozen points among Latino voters in the GBAO poll that found her leading Abbott among voters under 30 by 29 percentage points in a widely expected November pairing.
The Democratic pollsters pinpointed Abbott's name identification at 98 percent. But they also noted that he was rated unfavorably by 53 percent of the voters in the GBAO sample compared to 45 percent who viewed him in a positive light.
"Voters know Greg Abbott and they don’t like him," the Democratic pollsters said after pinpointing the governor's name identification at 98 percent. "This combination of being known and disliked by voters puts Abbott in a vulnerable position this election cycle.
Abbott had been the most popular elected Republican official in Texas consistently during most of a 12-year stint as the state's top leader. But Abbott's approval marks have been underwater in recent months - having fallen to record lows in tandem with President Donald Trump's during his chaotic second term.
Abbott acknowledged this week for the first time that Texas Republicans could be highly-vulnerable in a midterm election that often favors the candidates for the party that's out of power. Democrats picked up a dozen Texas House seats, two state Senate districts and two spots in the state's congressional delegation in the midterm election in Trump's first term in 2018. The national climate appears to be far worse at this point for the Republicans with Trump's popularity plunging and the Republicans in Texas and other states bracing for a blue wave that's even bigger this time around.
But Abbott's last re-election race in 2022 wasn't as close in the final box score as it had been in the polling when Democrat Beto O'Rourke pulled to within one or two points in surveys six or seven months before the incumbent Republican beat him by 10.9 points in the general election. Abbott beat Democrat Lupe Valdez by an even larger margin in the 2018 blue wave election when Patrick defeated a Democratic challenger by fewer than 5 points and Attorney General Ken Paxton won against a Democrat by less 3.
GBAO has been involved in some of the biggest races around the country in recent years - having conducted polling for an array of Democrats including U.S. Senators Raphael Warnock of Georgia and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Governors Katie Hobbs of Arizona, Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and a long of House members including U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar of El Paso. The firm has represented a multitude of groups such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
more to come ...
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